All signs point to a soft start for Indian equities on 17 August 2026. Oil is not giving an inch and there is no let up in the geopolitical risk, which is weighing on risk appetite. The Gift Nifty was cautionary and intraday numbers have the Sensex and Nifty in the red while the trading desk keeps an eye on the Fed’s next move and energy prices.
Why crude is setting the tone
Brent crude put in a 0.43 percent gain to USD 88.86 a barrel on Monday, ensuring the risk premium remains. West Texas Intermediate was in the vicinity of USD 82. It has been a strong run for the commodity; after a 6% jump last week, it is over 40% higher for the year to date.
Commentators are putting the firmness down to fresh tensions in the US-Iran conflict, now six months old, and the perils of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has made public its intention to bring in harder economic lines of action as soon as this week, even as Tehran and Oman hold talks on waterway management sans US involvement.
US President Donald Trump has told Americans to expect more of the same when it comes to fuel prices and said his team will be ratcheting up the pressure on Iran. That leaves oil to dominate the macro picture and Indian stocks are responding to the likelihood of tighter financials and input costs that will not abate.
Opening print and movers
At 9:45 a.m. or so, the Sensex had fallen 289.86 points to 77,719.39, a 0.37 percent slide. The Nifty was at 24,303.40, 62.60 points or 0.26 percent lower, adding to the marginal losses of the previous week.
In the early going the Sensex was off 284.85 points at 77,717.05 with the Nifty 69.25 points down at 24,297.05. IT and consumer staples were the main drags; one would see laggards like Infosys, HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and State Bank of India. Titan and Bharat Electronics did better by comparison.
For context, the Sensex wrapped up Friday at 78,009.25, a 0.09 percent drop of 70.71 points. The Nifty was 29.85 points in the hole, or 0.12 percent, to close at 24,366. Equities to the tune of Rs 508.12 crore were put to work by Foreign Institutional Investors that day, offering a measure of support.
Levels to track: Nifty and Bank Nifty
The Gift Nifty was indicative of a lacklustre opening. At about 8:00 AM it was in the vicinity of 24,402, some 48 points under the Nifty futures’ last close of 24,449.60; one reading put it at 24,393.5, or 56.1 points lower.
Ajit Mishra with Religare Broking has the Nifty’s battleground at 24,350. “A move either way from there will determine the next leg,” he says, and for now recommends sticking to individual stocks until the picture is clearer.
Ponmudi R of Enrich Money expects Bank Nifty to be range-bound so long as it can make 57,400-57,500 stick. There is resistance in the 57,800-58,000 area and a breakout would take it to 58,300-58,500. Should the index give up 57,200, after testing 57,500 for support, profit-booking could be on the cards.
Macro watch: geopolitics and the Fed
Market participants say sentiment is being held back by the situation in the Middle East. The control claims over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping issues have raised questions about global trade and energy routes.
All eyes will be on the Fed’s July minutes when they are published Wednesday. What comes out of the FOMC in the way of debate or hints for September policy will have consequences for the dollar, US Treasury yields and emerging market flows.
Intraday ideas for 17 August
With caution in the air, analysts have put forward some short-term trading ideas for Monday, complete with risk and target parameters:
– HAL: buy 5,030 (SL 4,799; TGT 5,500)
– Godrej Agrovet: 581 (SL 560; TGT 620)
– Apollo Hospitals: 8,920 (SL 8,850; TGT 9,100)
– Eternal: 318 (SL 310; TGT 332)
– Wipro: 184 (SL 180; TGT 192)
– Transformers and Rectifiers: 298 (SL 291; TGT 320)
– Aeroflex Industries: 459.85 (SL 449; TGT 485)
– Havells India: 1,298 (SL 1,272; TGT 1,370)
Volatility was also on the radar, the India VIX up more than 2 per cent to 11.54 in a sign of some unease.
What to watch next
Whether crude eases and if the Fed minutes allay any rate worries will likely dictate the market’s near-term course. In the meantime, discipline is key, particularly in the 57,400-58,000 zone for Bank Nifty and around 24,350 for the Nifty.
Disclaimer: The above are the opinions of the respective broking firms and analysts. It is advisable to speak with a certified expert prior to making an investment.
