Pakistan go into today’s Super 8 game against England with their hopes of making the T20 World Cup semi-finals in trouble, though not finished. Losing in Pallekele wouldn’t automatically knock Salman Ali Agha’s team out. It would make their route harder, and they would need other results to go their way, but there would still be a way to get into the last four by depending on outcomes of other games and, perhaps, net run rate.
What the group looks like and the current positions
Pakistan’s Super 8 began with a game that was washed out, leaving them with one point as their first match was stopped by rain. England, however, started this part of the tournament with a good win over Sri Lanka, getting two points and a good net run rate.
Because of that, the England versus Pakistan game is crucial. England can almost be certain of a place in the semi-finals with a win, whereas Pakistan must get points to avoid going into the last round needing some very unlikely things to happen. The match is at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium in Kandy – the same place where Pakistan’s first Super 8 game was rained off.
The weather is looking better, with a little light rain possible but no heavy rain expected during the game. A full match will make the situation in the group much clearer, instead of a washed-out game which would share the points and make things more uncertain.
How Pakistan can still get through if they lose today
Being beaten by England would leave Pakistan on one point after two matches. After that, whether they stay in the tournament depends on what New Zealand and Sri Lanka do, and Pakistan will need to beat Sri Lanka in their last match, and need help from elsewhere.
One way they could still make it: New Zealand lose to Sri Lanka and England, and Pakistan beat Sri Lanka. This would put Pakistan on three points and probably give them second place, as long as Sri Lanka finish on two points and New Zealand stay on one point from the washed-out game. England would be well ahead at the top of the group.
Another possibility: England beat New Zealand, and Pakistan and New Zealand both beat Sri Lanka. This would mean Pakistan and New Zealand are both on three points. Who goes into the semi-final would then be decided by net run rate – a very close way of deciding, which rewards teams not just for winning, but for winning by a lot.
The worst thing that could happen: New Zealand beat both Sri Lanka and England. This would put New Zealand on five points and England on four, and would shut the door on Pakistan even before their last match, depending on when the games are played. In that situation, Pakistan would be out of the tournament, whatever happens against Sri Lanka.
Why net run rate could be the thing that decides it all
If England versus Pakistan ends with England winning and the group ends up with a three-point tie for second place, net run rate will be the final thing that matters. Net run rate shows the average scoring of runs and giving up of runs in all the matches, meaning Pakistan would not only need to beat Sri Lanka, but to beat them by a good amount.
This works both ways today. Even if they are beaten, limiting England’s scoring or putting up a good total can protect Pakistan’s net run rate. On the other hand, a big defeat would mean they would need a large – perhaps not possible – margin in their last game. The thing to remember is simple: every over and every run from now on is important.
If Pakistan win: things look better again
A Pakistan win against England will change things quickly. If they won, Pakistan would go to three points – either tying or going ahead of New Zealand, depending on when the games are played – and would mostly be in charge of their own destiny going into the last game. It would also lower England’s net run rate, and open up the chance for three teams to fight to the end on the final day.
Should that happen, Pakistan could get through with a win in their last match against Sri Lanka, or, if things went exactly right, maybe even get through despite a small loss. The differences between teams are still small, but winning tonight gives a team control that losing gives to maths and scoreboards.
What the game is like: conditions, how teams have been playing, and what has happened when the teams have played each other before
The pitch at Pallekele today is expected to be newer and faster than the pitches used earlier in the week, with a good amount of grass and a more normal bounce. In Kandy, the pitch usually gets better for batting when the lights are on, so it’s important to hold back the other team in the first six overs, and to bowl well at the end of the innings. The weather forecast says there won’t be much rain in the evening, which should allow teams to play in a positive way.
England have a good recent record against Pakistan in Twenty20 Internationals, including never having lost to them in a Twenty20 World Cup, and a run of wins between the two teams in this type of game. They also know this ground, and have recently been good at dealing with the conditions in Sri Lanka – all of which makes them more confident.
Pakistan’s form is a mixture. Sahibzada Farhan has been very good at the top of the batting order, scoring runs easily and dealing with pressure at the start. The middle order – Babar Azam and Fakhar Zaman among them – have done well sometimes, but not regularly. Pakistan’s bowling is still their strongest part, with Shaheen Afridi’s bowling with the new ball helped by a number of different spin bowlers who can slow the game down in the middle overs.
Players who could change the game
– Shaheen Afridi: Getting early wickets is the best way to control England’s strong batting. Shaheen’s bowling which moves towards the batter, and his short balls, can change the first six overs.
– Adil Rashid: On a pitch that helps spin bowlers, Rashid’s leg spin, googly, and good understanding of the game in overs 7-15 are very important against Pakistan’s batters.
– Phil Salt and Will Jacks: How England’s top batters start the innings sets the tone. If they bat well into the middle overs, England usually turn good starts into winning positions.
– Babar Azam: Pakistan need a batter who can stay in for a long time, and also speed up their scoring. Babar batting well, and changing how fast he scores after the first six overs, makes both their batting when chasing a score and setting a score better.
– Usman Tariq and Mohammad Nawaz: Pakistan’s spin bowlers will try to stop easy boundaries, especially to England’s right-handed batters who want to hit the ball to the short side of the field.
The wider view: what the game means for ENG vs PAK
This Super 8 game isn’t a game where Pakistan have to win, but it could be the most important point in their tournament. If they lose, they must hope that New Zealand lose, and that they win against Sri Lanka, with net run rate possibly being the thing that decides who goes through. If they win, they take control, get their momentum back, and put pressure on the other teams in the group.
For England, what they want is clearer. Winning would almost certainly get them into the semi-finals, and continue their run of regularly getting to the later stages of the Twenty20 World Cup. Their problem is to turn their recent control into another full performance against a dangerous, though not always consistent, Pakistan.
ENG vs PAK often has high skill and high stakes. Today is no different. Pakistan’s maths for getting to the semi-finals doesn’t end with a loss, but it becomes more difficult and less forgiving. Avoiding that is what they have to do. Playing well in the first six overs, managing the middle overs with spin, and getting good results at the end of the innings will decide whether Pakistan’s World Cup stays alive, or becomes a question of what could have happened.
