When Ray made his sudden exit on Monday, the internal crisis in the party ratcheted up, with dissent moving from the Assembly to Parliament. Word on the ground is that 23 TMC MPs are in some form of contact with the rebels, hinting at a break in the ranks.
The numbers don’t lie. You need 22 out of the 28 TMC MPs in the Lok Sabha to be seen as a distinct group under anti-defection rules. In the Rajya Sabha, where the TMC has 13, you have to make it to nine to be recognised.
Why Ray’s resignation stings
It is an ill-timed move for Banerjee as she is trying to hold her ground in opposition talks. Losing the chief whip in the Rajya Sabha only narrows her room to manoeuvre and gives some weight to the talk of a revolt that might not be confined to the state level.
In a note to the TMC top, Ray was blunt: he said the people of Bengal have had enough of what they see as the party’s “rampant corruption, extreme oppression of women, and its utter failure.” He pointed to the “severe anarchy” in everything from education and health to law and order.
He didn’t mince words about the BJP either. “The voters have, for the first time in Bengal’s history, given the Bharatiya Janata Party a massive victory in terms of seats,” he wrote, adding that the new government is already on with its election promises to put the state back on track.
Rebellion spreads across state ranks
You can see the restlessness outside Delhi too. A meeting at Banerjee’s home in Kalighat on Friday was a no-show for all but 8 MLAs. Not long before, 60 of the 80 MLAs in the party bailed on a get-together, so it was called off.
Then there are the personnel shuffles. Firhad Hakim, a senior figure, put in his papers as Mayor of Kolkata. Mohammed Ajmal Siddique, the minority cell secretary, followed suit the next day, saying it was for personal and professional reasons.
Here is how the crisis has been playing out:
– Sukhendu Sekhar Ray leaves his Rajya Sabha seat
– A key meeting with just 8 MLAs in the room
– The end of Firhad Hakim’s mayoral stint
– Resignations from Mohammed Ajmal Siddique
Rebel camp consolidates inside Assembly
The dissidents are making their position official. They put forward expelled MLA Ritabrata Banerjee as Leader of the Opposition last week, a way of showing who is in charge of the TMC side of the house.
Banerjee has been touting his numbers. On Wednesday he put it at 58 MLAs “accepted as the principal opposition” by the Speaker. Later he upped it to 61 out of 80, calling the bloc “two-thirds strong” and one that puts “we” before “I.” He even added they want to make Banerjee “our chief advisor.”
But when it comes to what is happening in Parliament, he is more circumspect. “I have not spoken to any parliamentarians in the last seven days. So I can’t say what they would do. But I live in the now. Have patience. A lot can happen,” he said.
What comes next in Parliament
Some in the Lok Sabha are looking into forming a separate unit; a dozen or so are on board. An MP of some standing is holding the early conversations, but nothing is set in stone. How you make the numbers work in both Houses will be the make-or-break for any kind of schism.
Ray had put out a warning that this could go to the parliamentary side as well. With a rival faction in the Assembly and his own departure, the TMC’s unity is being put to the test. All eyes are on the fence-sitters in Parliament to see if they make a move and can clear the bar.
