Then there was his Saturday run to Delhi, which has put a finer point on what’s in store for the TMC in the capital. It comes hard on the heels of that surprise mutiny in the Bengal Assembly. Now, with the bloc meeting coming up, the party is in a bit of a rush to put out fires and make sure they know where they stand with their members.
The immediate stakes in Delhi
Banerjee, the TMC’s national general secretary, put his trip forward by a day. He was supposed to be on the same flight as Mamata Banerjee on Sunday, but he made an exception. Party sources say the TMC head wanted her nephew to go ahead of time, if you can call it that, though they won’t put a fine point on why.
Some in the party are calling it a way to take stock before the opposition sits down on Monday. But the vagueness is only adding to the mystery. “I don’t know why he is in Delhi today… I haven’t been told of any meeting,” one of our MPs from the TMC put it, on condition we not use his name.
And then you have the CID. They’ve put out a summons for Monday in connection with the whole signature-forgery row involving some of the TMC’s MLAs. Abhishek had put in for an extension, saying he wasn’t well, but they didn’t have it. So you have to wonder if being in town early is to do some damage control or to smooth things over with the allies.
How the Assembly revolt reshaped the battle
It all came to a head when 58 of the 80 TMC legislators – well over two-thirds of them – went their own way and were made the official opposition under the aegis of the former MLA Ritabrata Banerjee. For Mamata Banerjee, it is as big of an organisational hit as she has taken since ’98.
The rebels have a name for it: ‘Operation Crown Prince’. It’s their way of making a stand against the influence Abhishek has been amassing. You could see the extent of the upheaval at a later sit-down called by the TMC chief; of the ones who didn’t cross over, only eight showed up.
Signs of churn in Parliament
That kind of break has a way of changing the numbers in national politics. What started in Kolkata is now a potential headache in Delhi, where the same people have to hold firm as the session and alliance math gets more exacting.
There is chatter that the same thing is afoot in the parliamentary wing. “I think you will see something like this in New Delhi with the TMC MPs. It is because of how Abhishek has been running things,” said Sandipan Saha, one of the rebel MLAs.
One of the old-timers in the TMC was open about some of the unease. “What happened in the Assembly has made people nervous. We are all eyes on Delhi now.” And it seems they have been on the phone with the MPs since Friday night to make sure of it.
But those in Mamata Banerjee’s orbit will tell you the talk of a split is a bit much. They are quick to point out that most of the MPs are still with the leadership.
With rival factions sizing each other up, the party is in a delicate act of jostling for position while putting on a show of calm.
Basirhat MP Haji Nurul Islam’s passing has left the TMC with 28 in the Lok Sabha. Do the math: to break ranks and not be disqualified under anti-defection laws, you need at least two-thirds of them – 19. Then there are the 13 in the Rajya Sabha.
It all comes down to the figures and the narrative in the days ahead. Watch for:
– MPs who will put their name to their loyalty
– A formal move by a supermajority in the Lok Sabha
– Coordinated play in the Rajya Sabha
– What Abhishek Banerjee is up to in Delhi
– How the INDIA bloc reacts to the TMC’s inner workings
Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, an old hand in the Rajya Sabha, put it out there in no uncertain terms. “I have never seen 60-odd MLAs walk out in so little time,” he said. “You can expect the same in the Lok Sabha. And don’t rule out the upper house.”
Not everyone is buying into the doomsaying. Sougata Roy, a senior TMC MP, put down talk of the party coming apart and called it a BJP ploy. “They may be after our wings in both houses like they did in the Assembly, but Mamata Banerjee has been in much tougher scrapes and will make a comeback,” he was quoted as saying.
Where the INDIA bloc comes in
There’s a lot of pressure heading into Monday’s get-together with the opposition. The TMC has to look like a united front to its allies while keeping its own house in order. If you see any waver, it weakens your hand when it comes to floor strategy or haggling over seats.
It’s about perception too. Should Abhishek Banerjee be seen with the MPs before his mother gets in, it looks like he’s holding things together. But if the undercurrents run strong, it gives the rebels what they want: proof that the Assembly mutiny was just the start.
For now, the top brass is making a case that this is a blip, not an endgame. But the way things have been moving has some of the old-timers on edge. This week’s headcount and optics matter for how the rest of the country sees the TMC.
The TMC’s presence in Parliament is what gives it clout outside of Bengal. A crack here and the rebellion is no longer a state issue; it becomes a national one, and you’ll have to ask where the party is headed and who is in charge.
On the flip side, if they can put on a display of solidarity, it might put the brakes on. Some consolidation would give the leadership room to reorganise after the Assembly fiasco and set the terms of engagement on their own.
What to keep an eye on
Then you have the odd setup of Abhishek’s early come-to-Delhi, the CID’s summons on Monday, and the alliance meeting. How the TMC works through that will tell you if this is a crisis in full swing or on hold, and if it’s going to be a story for the local papers or for the ones in Delhi.
