In Tokyo, SoftBank shares were in the red after it was reported that an OpenAI listing may not come to pass until next year. The intraday slide was the steepest in over a quarter, making it plain how much of SoftBank’s recent run-up has been on the strength of the AI firm going public.
Why the big move at SoftBank
You could make the case for SoftBank on the strength of an OpenAI listing alone. Hopes of a windfall were enough to put its market cap ahead of Toyota last month, a telling sign of the re-rating AI has given the group. When all is said and done by October, SoftBank will have about $65 billion on the table with the makers of ChatGPT. An IPO would put a hard number on that position and, in turn, shed some light on the rest of its private startup stable.
The timing of an IPO in a volatile market
OpenAI’s bankers have been sounding some notes of caution. With tech stocks in a bit of a whiplash, they’ve warned that investors may not be as keen on a flotation right now. That has some people thinking the offering could be pushed to 2025, and it has had a cooling effect on SoftBank. The paperwork is already in with the U.S. SEC, filed in confidence. And while sources have put forward a fall timeline for a possible debut with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the mood has shifted.
How a listing changes the equation for SoftBank
If you ask the analysts, an IPO is what you need to get a clear read on one of SoftBank’s biggest private assets and to better judge the portfolio as a whole. Some of the conglomerate discount on the shares could be left behind with that kind of transparency.
