The BJP will put the UCC on the table in the Assembly this Monday. But you won’t find the most intense tussle between the treasury and the opposition. The day could be made or broken by an in-house TMC war, with rival wings trying to put their stamp on the resistance.
Word from the Assembly is that the Bill will come up in the second half of Monday’s docket. We can expect some words from Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, the Leader of Opposition and a few other heavyweights. Given the numbers the government has, they aren’t expected to have any trouble getting it passed.
On the government side, they have done their homework. They have been looking at how the UCC has been handled in places like Uttarakhand and have plans for the pushback they know is coming. Still, if you ask most in the political class, the scorecard isn’t about the vote; it’s about who controls the narrative.
Twin opposition scripts, one message
You have two flavours of opposition lining up for the same end. The TMC, with its divide between the camps of Mamata and Ritabrata, will be in the no corner. They are each hatching their own floor plan to be the face of the protest, even if their grievances are much the same.
At a get-together on Friday, Mamata Banerjee told her people at Kalighat to make their case for and against the Bill, in the House and out. Her leaders will say the Bill is at odds with what makes India plural and with our constitutional mores. Look for Sovandeb Chattopadhyay to be at the forefront, with Kunal Ghosh in tow.
Ritabrata Banerjee’s lot have been making their own preparations. He has been open about his misgivings with the haste to change personal laws. “Something like the UCC needs to be talked through and consulted on,” he put it. Those in his orbit will be on to the government about due process and minority rights, pointing to what has happened in other states run by the BJP.
Why Monday’s optics matter
The BJP may have been counting on an opposition in disarray after the TMC split, but Monday might not bear that out. In the House, you could see two separate drives with the same talking points, both wanting to be seen as the one to put the ruling party on the spot.
It is a timely debate for the government, only a couple of months into unseating the TMC’s 15-year hold on the state. This is the first of the big ideological reckonings since the election and a key promise to deliver on.
Inside TMC’s fracture lines
The chasm in the TMC has been growing ever since the assembly loss. It started when 58 of 80 MLAs threw in with the deposed Ritabrata Banerjee for the top job, spurning the leadership’s pick of Sovandeb Chattopadhyay. Now the rebels have the backing of some 65 or so.
It is not just in the Assembly. A good chunk of the 28 Lok Sabha MPs have left to join the Nationalist Citizens Party of India and the NDA. Even in the Rajya Sabha, there have been walkouts, like that of old-timer Sukhendu Sekhar Roy.
All of which means the stakes are higher for either side of the TMC. Monday is an opportunity for Mamata Banerjee’s side to make a point: even without the reins of power, they are still the BJP's main ideological thorn in the side. For those with Ritabrata Banerjee, it’s as good a stage as any to put forward their case as the state’s pre-eminent opposition.
What the Bill would do
In a nutshell, the new law is meant to put in place one civil code for all when it comes to marriage, divorce, inheritance and the like, doing away with the old personal laws that have been tied to religion. It is that very goal that has made the UCC a flashpoint in a national conversation for some time now.
Those on board with it will tell you it’s about making civil rights more orderly. The opposition has a different take. They say the government is steamrolling ahead without the kind of buy-in from society it should have. You hear it from Banerjee’s people too: this isn’t so much a legal fix as a tool for the BJP to drive a wedge between people.
In the House
Word from the Assembly is that we can expect a full house for some hard-hitting debate on the finer points of the constitution and the law. The government has its answers prepared, some of them lifted from what’s been done in Uttarakhand and other places.
Keep an eye on these as the day goes on:
– When exactly the Bill is brought up
– How Sovandeb Chattopadhyay makes his mark for the opposition
– The case Ritabrata Banerjee will put for more input
– Any talk of the Uttarakhand model
– And how the vote plays out in the end
It’s not just about the numbers; the whole thing is put on for show. You’ll see TMC orators trying to one-up each other on the same issues, vying for the best soundbite for TV and social media.
The government, for its part, has been at work for days, running through every possible question on minority rights or how long things will take to be put in place. They want to be ready. On the opposition side, it’s as much about how you say it as what you say. The way a speaker puts it, or the ground they cede, will be a sign of who is in the driving seat in the TMC for the next session.
The BJP has the majority to see the Bill through, no doubt. But for the political watchers, the real contest is in the framing. A well-handled exchange could be the difference in which faction of the opposition gets to be heard next.
Then there is what happens outside the Chamber. Banerjee has told her people to get moving in and around the Assembly. The breakaway group is looking at Monday as a kind of referendum on whether they are the ones to be reckoned with.
Even if the Bill is a formality to pass, the ripples will be felt. Some think this is as much a test of the government’s agenda as it is of the opposition’s mettle.
But let’s be plain: the question of the hour is who has the better of it in the House. With two wings of the TMC making the same case but for different reasons, we may be in for something of a show. In the end, it won’t be the clauses that are talked about, but the impression left. Who did you believe was in the lead?
