It is a level of homicides not witnessed in three generations, and it is bound to change the conversation ahead of November. According to an FBI report, violent crime took a sharp nosedive in 2025, which has sparked a new round of debate over who gets the credit and what is really behind the shift.
The new crime picture in numbers
For the US, the FBI puts the 2025 homicide rate at 4.1 per 100,000, on par with 1955 and 1956 and the lowest mark since 1900. The agency sees a wide ranging pullback in property and violent offences, a momentum that has been building since the pandemic surge.
The headline figures from the FBI’s 2025 report are as follows:
– An 18.1 percent decrease in non-negligent manslaughter and homicide
– A murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000
– 9.3 percent less overall violent crime
– 12.4 percent drop in property crime
– Robberies are down 18.5 percent
– Nearly 23 percent fewer motor vehicle thefts
These numbers come from the Uniform Crime Reporting Programme and over 17,000 agencies. In the view of the FBI, that is more than 87 percent of participants and accounts for communities of some 329 million people.
Broad-based decline defies simple explanations
There is a warning from experts not to be too hasty in pointing to a particular policy or leader for the downturn. ‘The homicide drop is historic and crystal clear. But right now, what’s driving it is about as clear as a glass of milk,’ says Adam Gelb of the Council on Criminal Justice.
Gelb points out that rates are going down in cities with entirely different political leadership, economies and policing methods. Given that kind of consistency across the map, he would have one be cautious about claiming credit before the evidence is fully in.
In an uncharacteristic move before the year-end tabulations are done, the FBI has also noted a continued fall in violent and other crime for the first half of 2026. The Council on Criminal Justice has its own tally for the period, showing an 18 percent dip in the cities it monitors versus 2025.
Trump turns data into a campaign message
President Donald Trump made much of the statistics during a stop at the Nassau County Police Academy on Long Island, putting them forward as evidence his way of doing things is paying off.
Trump made reference to a hard line on immigration, his backing of the police and measures to be tough on crime, such as putting the National Guard in Washington and other locales.
“We put an end to the war on police and we have declared a very strong one on crime,” he said. In so doing he was quick to denounce sanctuary cities and put the onus on his predecessor, honing a message Republicans have been fond of in earlier election cycles.
Those are figures that provide him with a compelling argument for the midterms. But it is worth noting that the decline was in progress well before he was back in the White House in January 2025, and one can see the reductions in jurisdictions with quite different political leadership and policing approaches.
Sanctuary cities and the policy debate
The fact that you can spot these declines in areas with opposing public safety strategies makes for a complicated narrative, according to experts. The cross-ideological nature of the drop is hard to pin on any one administration or local rule set.
From pandemic spike to reversal
To appreciate the magnitude of the change, one has to look at the shock of the pandemic years. Homicides were up nearly 30 per cent in 2020 over the year before, the steepest increase the FBI has on record. By 2022 violent crime had receded to pre-pandemic levels and the downward slope has only steepened in 2024 and 2025.
Property crime has taken a turn as well. Take motor vehicle theft: after a run-up in 2022 and 2023 driven by a social media fad involving certain Kia and Hyundai models, it was down almost 23 per cent in 2025, the lowest in two decades.
What to watch in the months ahead
An early readout from the FBI in 2026 indicates this is no passing trend. With an 18 per cent fall in homicides in the first half of the year in the cities they track, the Council on Criminal Justice has put forward the possibility of an even larger drop in 2026 should things hold.
It is not common for the agency to call out midyear declines just prior to the midterms; normally they would wait for the full year’s data. That puts a spotlight on their methodology and the final verified numbers to come later. Some will be watching to see:
– If the 18 per cent homicide reduction holds in 2026
– Where the declines differ by city strategy
– How leaders’ claims of credit stand up to scrutiny
– The timing and coverage of the FBI’s final release
For the voter there is a practical and political dimension to it. While the why of it is still open to question, the data is plain to see: fewer victims, safer streets and a murder rate in America that has not been witnessed in some 70 years.
