We’re in for a longer wait in Mumbai. While the IMD is forecasting the city to be under widespread rain by about June 25, Skymet says don’t rule out a slip past that. The monsoon has been over Maharashtra since the 8th, so any hope of it hitting on the 22nd or 23rd is waning, and with it, more worries over the heat and our water.
You can feel the hold-up. The IMD has put out word on hot weather for swathes of western and central India this week, and for mid-June, Mumbai’s lakes are still not where they should be. It’s no longer a matter of when the calendar says it should be; now it’s about public health and having enough water.
A divide in the forecasts
Mritunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of the IMD, says you can expect the monsoon to make itself felt across northern and parts of central Maharashtra, Mumbai included, come June 25. Put another way, we are looking at a 15-day delay from what is normal for the city.
Skymet is being more conservative. They have put out a warning that the monsoon might not show up until after the 25th. The last time we saw an onset as late as that was in 2023, and the private forecaster thinks we could top that. They also see a chance of this being the driest June in here for 20 years or so.
The moving target
At first, the plan was for the monsoon to be here around the 10th or 11th. Then on the 11th, the IMD said the western front would be back in action by the 15th or 16th, with an eye on an 18th-19th start for Mumbai.
But four days on, they had to walk that back. The monsoon was to be held up at Harnai in South Konkan through the 20th at least. Bikram Singh, head of the Western Zone, then put the date at 22-23. Now we are being told the 25th.
What’s holding it up
Bikram Singh puts it down to the fact that the monsoon’s push on the western side has been at a standstill in southern Maharashtra since June 8. He doesn’t see it getting going again in these parts until after the 20th.
El Nino is part of the equation, he says. And while there has been some movement on the eastern side, it has been slow. All in all, it has left much of western India in a kind of hot, muggy limbo for longer than you’d like.
Hot days and warm nights
There are heatwave warnings in place for some of Telangana on the 15th and 16th, and in Vidarbha through the 17th. For the 15th to the 17th, you can count on it being hot and muggy in Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Odisha.
Nights won’t be any cooler in parts of Konkan and Goa until the 18th. The IMD figures that with the monsoon taking its time, we in Mumbai and the rest of Maharashtra will have to put up with the humidity until the rain comes in force later in the month.
Making do with the water we have
The numbers are telling: on June 11, the seven lakes that feed Mumbai were at 12.12% capacity. In the rest of the state, 3,028 dams were at 24.53% as of the 15th, which is a drop from 30.78% this time last year.
Given how the monsoon has been, the state has made it clear that drinking water comes first and has given orders to that effect through the end of August. The agriculture ministry has its eye on 197 districts it deems at risk from El Nino and is making the necessary arrangements.
What to keep an eye on
The next 10 days are key for some relief in Mumbai. This is on the radar for officials and the rest of us:
– Whether the western front picks up after the 20th
– The date moving from the 22-23 to the 25th
– If the IMD and Skymet can agree on a timeline
– Any new heat or warm night calls
– How we are faring on water supply
In the short term, the city has to put up with a bit more of the heat. The IMD has given us a June 25 to aim for, but with Skymet’s reservations, it is wise to be ready for a monsoon that is later than we have seen in a while.
