The kind of volatile we’ve had in the northwest for the past week will mellow, if not fully clear up. We are looking at more of the same: the IMD has put out a yellow alert for key areas in the Himalayas and the north, and there’s a wind factor in Rajasthan. For Delhi and around it, the odd shower is still on the table.
“It’s a move from what we’ve been seeing to something more even-keeled,” says Naresh Kumar, an IMD scientist. He puts it down to the western disturbance pulling back from North Haryana; the rain will be with us in the region, but not as hard.
What is behind this turn in the weather?
There was a method to the recent deluge. Naresh Kumar points to a western disturbance that siphoned off moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, which in turn put some oomph into the systems here. That’s what you get when those forces meet: a lot of rain and wind.
He says that combination made for some heavy going in Himachal and Uttarakhand, with winds in the 60-70 km/h range. Now that the disturbance is on the move, the whole setup is lessening, though there is enough left in the tank to keep the showers coming in much of the northwest.
What the alerts are for
You’ll see a yellow alert from the IMD for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Haryana. Delhi was in the same boat on Saturday. And they have put out a word of caution about strong winds in Rajasthan for the time being.
They are also flagging some localised trouble in the belt. Between one date and the next you might have to put up with a thunderstorm or some lightning. There’s even a short spell of thundersqualls with some bite to them over in Rajasthan.
Here is where the IMD has its eye on potential hazards:
– Some thundersqualls in West Rajasthan on the 13th
– 60-70 kmph, with some gusts to 80
– East Rajasthan thundersqualls to run through the 14th
– Thunder in HP and J&K on the 13th and 14th
– More of the same in Uttarakhand through the 15th
– Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and West UP on the 13th
– East Rajasthan from the 16th to the 19th
– West Rajasthan on the 15-17 and 19th
When and where to expect the rain
The forecast is for a wet stretch in the northwest to last till June 19, 2026. It will be a bit of a patchwork – some places will be drier than others. The mountains will be on the wet side for a while, while the plains will have their moments.
By the numbers, it looks like this:
– J&K, Ladakh, Uttarakhand: 13-19 June
– Himachal: 14-19 June
– Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, West UP: all the way to the 19th
– East UP: 13 and 18-19
– West Rajasthan: 13-17 and 19
Then there is the matter of some isolated heavy rain in East Uttar Pradesh on the 13th. All in all, the intensity is dialed down, but in some districts these hiccups can still put a crimp in your day.
How the heat will play out by June 19
Don’t expect the heat to make a full comeback right away. The IMD is penciling in a 4-6C nudge in max temps for the northwest up to the 17th, and then nothing much after that. A slow build-up as the air settles in the wake of the disturbance.
In other parts of the country, it’s a different story. Central India will be flat until the 17th and then cool off 2-3C. For the rest of the nation, you can figure on the thermometers staying where they are through to June 19, 2026.
The point of it all
This is part of the pre-monsoon rhythm. You have a western disturbance that can pull in moisture from two seas and give you a taste of what’s to come, only to let up. The IMD is telling us that’s what is happening: the severe stuff is becoming rarer, but the drizzle will be with us.
Naresh Kumar has it in a nutshell: the hard rain is off the table, but we are in for some light to moderate amounts in the northwest. If you are in Delhi, Punjab or the hills, he would say to stay on your guard.
Looking ahead
So, for the rest of the month, the IMD is on for some on-and-off rain in the northwest, the odd storm in a few spots, and a little more warmth in the plains. Rajasthan is still the place to be wary of for wind on the days they have marked. The Himalayan states have a longer run of it.
Put simply, the worst of it is over, but the pattern is still in effect. With the yellow alerts up and a few hazard windows to watch for, the weeks ahead in the northwest should be fine, provided you keep an eye on the forecast.
