On Monday, as votes were being counted, Ratna Debnath (the mother and the BJP’s candidate in Panihati) quickly took the lead, suggesting a strong shift in how people are voting in West Bengal. She was 8,067 votes ahead, and this combines feelings with progress, and puts voter frustration at the center of this election.
In the second part of the fifteenth round of counting, Debnath was 8,067 votes ahead of Tirthankar Ghosh, who is running for the Trinamool Congress. Panihati has been a TMC area for over ten years, and this early change in the lead is a test of how complaints, women voters, and how well the government is working are all coming together in West Bengal.
Women voters change the script
Even before the counting started, there was a sign of this. In Phase 2 of the election, 92.28% of women voted, compared to 91.07% of men. This small difference in voting numbers matched the initial results on Monday morning, where the BJP was in the lead in 126 of the assembly areas, while the TMC was in the lead in and 73.
Where a lot of people voted tells its own story. Phase 1 had the highest turnout in Cooch Behar (96.2%), then Dakshin Dinajpur (95.44%), Malda (94.79%), and Jalpaiguri (94.76%). These districts which border Bangladesh were also the first to show a clear lead for the BJP.
In many areas, more women than men voted, and the BJP has used this to their advantage. In these places, people have worried for a long time about the border being easily crossed, changes in the population, and being safe. It looks like the high number of voters turned those worries into votes.
From personal grief to political reckoning
Ratna Debnath running for office is directly tied to the murder in August and 2024 at RG Kar Medical College. A 26-year-old doctor who was doing postgraduate work was raped and killed in a locked seminar room at a hospital run by the state. Many people were outraged, and protests in the streets kept the issue going for a long time.
Almost a year and a half later, Debnath decided to run for the BJP in Panihati after they asked her to speak the truth about what happened with the crime. She says she wonders if she’ll get justice while she’s still alive and that’s why she has gotten involved in politics.
At a political meeting in Panihati, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Debnath ‘one of us’ and said her daughter was a victim of ‘lawlessness’ under the current government. Debnath was crying on the stage as he said this and Modi put his hand on her head. This moment became very popular online, and strengthened the BJP’s point of view in West Bengal.
Sandeshkhali becomes a second flashpoint
For a lot of voters, the terrible event at RG Kar relates to what happened in Sandeshkhali, where women with brooms and sticks protested, saying local TMC leaders (including Shahjahan Sheikh who is hiding and his people) had been cruel and sexually harassed them. The women said the police weren’t letting them file reports in early February 2024.
Modi connected these two events, saying the BJP had given the victim in Sandeshkhali a chance to be in charge. This directly linked the idea of getting away with things and the BJP’s promise of being responsible.
Key moments that hurt TMC’s standing
These flashpoints loomed over the campaign and counting day. Four moves repeatedly came up in voter conversations and opponent attacks:
– Mamata Banerjee advised women not to step out late at night.
– Police allegedly refused FIRs in Sandeshkhali cases.
– TMC pivoted to a son of the soil pitch in Panihati.
– Border anxieties were dismissed as BJP propaganda.
Counting-day picture and stakes for Bengal
Aside from Panihati, the BJP was clearly in the lead in roughly 185 of the 294 assembly areas in the state, according to the numbers. This suggests they might win in a way that has never happened before. Many people see Debnath’s performance as being important for both politics and what it represents, and it’s a big part of the overall increase in support.
As the vote counting went on, her lead was seen as meaning that anger about safety, a desire for justice, and women actively voting were all coming together in a seat that has been held by the TMC for a long time. This is changing what people think about where the BJP can compete and win.
What to watch next
The final number of votes ahead will show how completely things have changed. Right now, the numbers suggest a strong combination of how people feel and how many voted is helping the BJP. Whether the TMC can change the conversation about safety and being responsible will determine how much of its support in cities and along the border remains.
Modi set the tone in Panihati: He said he’s seeing the strength of the women of Bengal will create a new story for Bengal in the 21st century. He said all the women of Bengal are saying they won’t put up with this anymore and they will change the TMC government. On Monday, the first numbers showed that this statement had a basis in fact.
