Actor Vijay becoming a politician has disrupted the usual two-way competition in Tamil Nadu. His TVK, benefitting from his celebrity and appeal to younger voters, is taking votes from the DMK and AIADMK across different areas. With the difference in votes getting smaller, the big question is whether Vijay will be the biggest success in the state in daily life or simply ruin the chances of others in 2026.
Where TVK Is Biting Into Vote Banks
A long-time media professor says TVK is getting a little bit of support from the main supporters of all the big parties, though it’s not the same amount everywhere. The DMK is losing more support in the southern, central, and northern districts, including Chennai. In the west and northwest, the AIADMK might be more noticeably affected.
The professor warns that Thol. Thirumavalavan’s VCK is likely to lose a lot of voters, across the whole state. Smaller, local and national parties, including the Congress party, might also find some of their supporters going elsewhere.
Young people who are Dalit or Muslim are especially likely to start supporting Vijay, and this could make things more unpredictable in areas where only a few extra votes are needed to win. This mix of different groups of people makes it harder to figure out how alliances will work and how local communities and caste groups will vote.
Women and Young Voters Could Tilt The Scale
Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, says how much impact Vijay has will depend on whether he can get women to vote away from the DMK (since women make up 51% of all voters). She added that women in Tamil Nadu politics have a very strong voice and a lot of power when making decisions.
TVK is hoping for votes from people voting for the first time and younger voters. A senior political analyst in the state says that unlike traditional political meetings in Tamil Nadu, people are choosing to come and see Vijay. He’s mainly attracting younger voters and women.
Felix Gerald, a leader in TVK, says that according to the party’s own research, they might get 50% of the 29 million women who will vote. He also says that 60% of voters are under 40 and the party’s own survey shows they have over 40% of the votes in about 150 areas.
Here are the important numbers:
– Total voters: roughly 56.7 million
– Women: approximately 29 million, or 51%
– Voters under 30: around 21%
– First-time voters: about 1.25 million
Seat Battles To Watch: Perambur And Tiruchirappalli (East)
Vijay is running for election in Perambur in Chennai and Tiruchirappalli (East) in central Tamil Nadu. In 2021, the DMK won Perambur with about 53% of the vote and MNM got nearly 9%. In Tiruchirappalli (East), the DMK got around 56% and MNM almost 7%.
This time, MNM is with the DMK alliance, which also includes DMDK. In both of these voting areas, the Left’s trade union supporters, the DMK’s own organization, local community and caste issues, and how well the parties in the alliance stick together could all be more important than Vijay’s popularity. Even for Vijay, winning in these places will be difficult.
Promises, Perception, And Pitfalls
The current government alliance is promoting popular help for people, including Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (a cash payment), free bus rides for women, and breakfast at school. This alliance includes the Congress party, VCK, CPI and CPI(M), and more than 20 parties in total. Currently, lots of polls show the DMK is definitely in the lead.
The AIADMK has promised women free refrigerators, gas cylinders for cooking, and Rs 2,000 each month. Vijay is offering 8 grams of gold and a silk sari to women from poorer families when they get married. Felix Gerald says the money for this will come from saving money because the government will be free of corruption.
Some analysts say there are risks to how people see Vijay. Last year, people were trampled in Karur, and Vijay’s wife recently filed for divorce – these things could affect people who haven’t decided how to vote. Vijay says the divorce won’t affect his political work.
The main promises from each party are:
– DMK: cash, free buses, breakfast at school
– AIADMK: fridges, gas cylinders, Rs 2,000 for women
– TVK: 8 grams of gold and a sari
Why This Matters And What Comes Next
Predictions for how well TVK will do are very different. Many polls say they’ll get between 10 and 20% of the votes in the state, with some saying the election will be very close between the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance and the NDA. Others still think the DMK will win easily because of the help they’re giving people and their large alliance.
The experienced professor thinks TVK will likely get 8 to 12% of the vote because Vijay is the only famous person campaigning for them and doesn’t have a huge presence across the whole state. Since 90% of voters are over 30, people’s long-term loyalty to parties might stop a huge rush of support. Getting a full 20% is probably too much to expect, according to this opinion.
However, the professor also warns that the DMK’s apparent lead is changing. TVK could be the thing that ruins the chances of others in 2026 by taking votes in important areas. Its increasing popularity threatens not only the main Dravidian parties but also the Congress and their other allies.
Looking at different areas, the DMK seems more at risk in the south, centre and north, while the AIADMK is facing pressure in the west and northwest. The VCK’s supporters, in particular, could be affected by these changes. The NDA is led by the AIADMK, with the BJP playing a smaller, supporting role.
In the end, what’s at stake is very clear. If TVK can turn Vijay’s celebrity into actual votes, and do this in a well-organized way (even without a huge organization), it will completely change how campaigns are run. Whether Vijay will be the biggest success in Tamil Nadu or just spoil things for others will depend on how many women and young people vote, and on how people change their minds in the last few days in the important cities.
