The loud cheering outside the TVK headquarters in Chennai on Friday was about a lot more than just being happy. Because the two Left parties have said they will support the TVK, and Congress have indicated they’ll back them to show the people’s wishes and to stop the BJP from getting in, Thalapathy Vijay’s fans think the numbers in the coalition are now strongly in favour of getting power in Tamil Nadu.
Coalition arithmetic tilts toward TVK
After several days of talking things over, the TVK’s chances of forming a government are much clearer. They have 108 seats in the assembly; they need 118 for a simple majority, but the new support from the Left and Congress’s position mean they’re much closer to that 118.
Later on Friday, Vijay is scheduled to meet Governor Rajendra Arlekar to officially say that the TVK should be allowed to govern. It will be the third time he’s met with the Governor since the election results were announced, and shows how important it is to them to quickly turn this success into an actual government.
The key numbers and moves now in play are:
– TVK has won 108 Assembly seats.
– Majority mark stands at 118 legislators.
– Two Left parties have pledged support.
– Congress, with 5 seats, signalled backing.
– Vijay will meet Governor Rajendra Arlekar.
A seismic setback for DMK bastions
The biggest surprise in the election was really felt in areas where the DMK had always been very safe. The TVK took Kolathur, a constituency that’s always been linked with M. K. Stalin, and V S Babu won there in a really important victory that was a strong symbolic defeat for the current government.
And it wasn’t just that one seat. The TVK did extremely well throughout the capital city, winning 14 out of the 16 seats in the Chennai assembly, quickly and dramatically changing the political map of Chennai which has been dominated by Stalin and the DMK for many years.
Emotion on the streets, symbolism in the air
Outside the TVK office in Panaiyur, supporters were dancing and chanting all afternoon in the hot weather. A group of women from Idukki in Kerala said they had waited for three days, even though they were ill, and when they heard the word ‘support’ they went to a temple and cried with joy.
Many ordinary people have compared Joseph Vijay’s quick rise in politics to earlier actors who became politicians – M. G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa. To those people, this week feels like a completely new period is beginning, and isn’t just the usual negotiation after an election.
Youth narrative takes centre stage
Younger people working for the TVK see the results as a move away from the old, well-established political organizations. A university student from Madurai said the older politicians had tried to prevent young people from having a voice, but at last the way is open. They aren’t focusing on complicated political ideas; they want change, and they want it now.
From victory scenes to governing realities
Now that the Left parties are with them and Congress have said they will support the TVK to respect how people voted, the numbers now favour a coalition led by the TVK. The first thing that needs to happen is for Vijay to formally ask the Governor to let him form a government, and then the assembly will have a vote to show whether the government has the support of the majority of members.
Political experts are warning that getting all these groups to actually govern together will be Joseph Vijay’s first big challenge as a political leader. It might be hard to keep everyone united when they have such different beliefs, especially the Left and Congress. However, at the moment the momentum is clearly with the TVK, and the state is about to go through a period of change.
