The 40C heat may be pushing some to find a cooler spot, but it is the worry over Ebola that is tempering the usual summer rush to Africa. The travel and insurance side of the industry can see it in the numbers: a change of course, with a hard line on protection and being medically prepared for any foray into East or Central Africa.
You can see the change in the way things have been going at Ziptrrip since May. “We’ve had a 15-20% drop in new business for East and Central Africa,” says co-founder Rishabh Agarwal. At the same time, he is seeing an 8-12% bump in people who want to put a trip on hold or rebook. Cancellations? Only 3-5% of the time; most will just wait and see.
Risk recalibration is reshaping Indian outbound travel
It’s less about what you might be exposed to and more about how you feel about it, say those in the know. Asego’s head, Dev Karvat, puts the change in behaviour down to a mix of health worries, what the government is saying, the media, and not knowing if you’ll get help in an emergency.
The policies tell the story. Asego is up 56% in sales to the under-18s and over 24% with the 19-30 crowd. Over at Ziptrrip, there is a 25-30% jump in calls for medical and travel protection, and about 20% more for the kind of cancellation and rebooking terms that give you an out.
A patchwork impact across African destinations
It doesn’t affect every market the same way. There is more of a hush around Uganda and some of Central Africa. Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania have some concern because of how close they are. But you won’t find that with South Africa, Mauritius, Morocco or Egypt; they are holding up fine.
What is driving the decision is perception, which has been ratcheted up since the WHO made its call in May, not so much the actual risk where you are.
Key market signals at a glance:
– Enquiries for East and Central Africa are 15-20% lower
– We’re up 8-12% on rebookings and holds
– Cancellations are in the 3-5% range
– 56% more in insurance for the 0-18 set
– 19-30 age group is up by 24% or so
– 25-30% more for protection and medical cover
South Africa holds firm as islands draw interest
Don’t count on a continent-wide lull. Hari Ganapathy of Pickyourtrail says his South Africa bookings are 12-15% better than last year, with 15-18% more people inquiring. “They are looking at it on a case-by-case basis,” he says.
A Scapia rep would agree. They don’t see a sudden turn in the books, though there is a bit more pull for the islands like Mauritius and Seychelles. Africa is a niche for us, but it is one we are building on, with Nairobi, Zanzibar and Egypt in the mix as well.
Southeast Asia is capturing diverted demand
If you are going to make a switch, it is to the likes of Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Australia or Bali. This summer, the demand for those is 10-15% ahead of what you’d see for an Africa product.
In the end, it is a matter of where you can get good healthcare and an easy rebooking. Those places are doing well against ones with a bad reputation to overcome.
Outlook: caution without capitulation
Some in the industry think the idea of a mass exodus from Africa is a bit of a stretch. Most Indians are just holding off, not bailing. They want to be clear on their options before they put down a deposit.
So the approach is to be practical. We are pointing people to the solid African spots and making sure they have the right kind of terms. If the mood changes, the demand could be back in a hurry. But with a 10-15% lead in Southeast Asia, the rest of the world isn’t going to be idle.
