You could say Europe is edging back in, but don’t read too much into it. The point is not to be soft on Ukraine; it’s to make sure they aren’t left out when the dust settles. Those in the know will tell you the outreach is as limited and circumspect as it gets, but it is a change of tack in Brussels as they look at the war, their summit and what the public wants.
Why the EU is reopening a channel
Some EU officials, who wouldn’t put their name to it, have been in touch with the Russians over the last few weeks. It’s an effort to put some guardrails around Europe’s interests for when and if there are talks to end this, without wavering in support of Kyiv.
There is a reason for the about-face: President Vladimir Putin has been trying to go over Europe and Kyiv to make his case in Washington. The EU makes it clear it isn’t putting itself forward as a go-between, but it is with Ukraine in its quest for a fair peace.
How far the outreach goes
Call it exploratory. The kind of contact we’re seeing has been short and doesn’t get into the nitty-gritty. We asked the Kremlin for a word and didn’t get one right away, and our sources won’t be drawn on the details or the timetable.
Here is where they draw the line:
– Just brief contacts, nothing of substance
– A way for the EU to put up a shield for certain interests
– Not a mediator, the EU says
– And from Putin: if you want to talk, you can call or come by
Signals from Moscow
Putin has made no secret of his view that Europe has no place in mediating this. But he hasn’t closed the door. He was at it again earlier this month, saying if the Europeans are in the mood for a chat, they know how to find him. Russia has never turned them down, he put it.
It’s a message that allows for some give-and-take without giving up any ground. In Brussels, they see the danger of waiting for the stars to align and having the choices made for them.
Pressure from the battlefield
All this diplomacy is happening while the fighting is up. Russian officials report Ukraine has put on one of its more sizeable drone shows since the invasion began some four years back. A top oil refinery in Moscow has been hit for the second time in seven days and air traffic in the capital has been put in a lurch.
It’s a reminder that as long as the guns are talking, any road to a deal is going to be rough. And if Europe is on the outside looking in, the price of a misstep is high.
EU summit and Kyiv’s accession track
The 27 are in town for their summer get-together in Brussels and Ukraine is front and centre. We expect to hear from Volodymyr Zelenskyy as they work on closer ties.
Ukraine made it official on Monday: they are in the running to join the EU. It’s a long haul of reforms ahead for a country in the middle of a war, and the two are inextricably linked.
Wider diplomatic backdrop
Then there was the G7 in Evian-Les-Bains. European leaders were able to get Donald Trump to sign off on a statement of 'unwavering support for Ukraine‘. For his part, Zelenskyy says he has some firm new promises of help from the likes of the U.S.
Put those together with the hush-hush overtures to Moscow and you have a plan: be a rock for Kyiv, but make sure Europe is present for the conversation if it happens.
Coordination and what comes next
Antonio Costa, head of the European Council, has been in close quarters with other leaders on how to handle Russia and what to put on the table when the time is right. Nothing concrete yet, but the groundwork is being laid.
Keep an eye on:
– When, or if, these chats become formal
– Any more than a nod from the Kremlin
– What comes of the summit in Brussels
– Some teeth to the G7 words
It’s a matter of being both principled and practical. You don’t have to let go of Ukraine to keep a line open, they’ll have it, and in doing so, you don’t have to stand by and let others decide your security.
For Kyiv, the message is simple: we are here for you in every way, and we will put our foot down when it comes to a settlement. As for whether what Putin is offering is anything more than talk, well, that is yet to be seen.
