Trump has been making a point to tie up Middle East matters with what it means for your wallet. He says Iran wants a deal “so badly” and that once you get one, the war will be done “very quickly.” On top of that, he’s forecasting a free-fall in global oil. It’s a way of ratcheting up the pressure on both the negotiating table and the markets.
Energy stakes and global markets
“There is so much oil out there,” Trump said, contending that the supply will put a lid on prices. “You are going to see oil prices plummet” when an accord is in place.
Some of that was echoed by Vice President JD Vance. Reuters has it that after Vance put in a good word for the “a lot of progress” made between Washington and Tehran – and how neither side is in the mood for more fighting – oil finished the day lower. “We are in a pretty good spot here,” he put it.
Then there is the Strait of Hormuz. Any hiccups in shipping there have put a crimp in supply and, as Reuters puts it, turned up the heat on the White House to make sure passage is safe.
“We are blowing it away. We are blowing everything away. And we are going to end that war very quickly,” Trump told a crowd. “This should have happened for 47 years.”
A tightening timeline at the White House
But he also let on that the talks could fall apart. According to Reuters, the president was “an hour away” from ordering another strike but held off. His line is that if there is no deal, a US attack is only days away.
He has put the blame for the pause on appeals from the Gulf. In a post on Truth Social, Trump laid out how he was swayed by the Qatari Emir, the Saudi Crown Prince and the head of the UAE. The plan was to hit tomorrow, he wrote, but he told his people to stand down for now while keeping the troops on a hair-trigger to “go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice” if he doesn’t like what he sees. “This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!“
Key developments at a glance
Even as the White House touts its headway, the Senate is not about to cede any ground. They put through a 50-47 vote to discharge a War Powers resolution from committee, with a handful of Republicans in on it.
Here are the headline moves shaping the talks and markets:
– Trump says the war will end ‘very quickly’
– Oil prices to ‘come plummeting down,’ he claims
– Senate advances War Powers resolution, 50-47
– Four Republicans back the procedural step
The Kaine bill would have the president pull back forces from hostilities with Iran unless Congress has given the OK. For the Democrats in the chamber, it’s a matter of doing their job. “We are exercising our constitutional responsibility to declare war,” Adam Schiff posted on X. Bernie Sanders was even more blunt: Americans don’t want to be writing blank checks for “endless wars.”
In Iran, Ebrahim Azizi of the national security committee has a different take. He says Trump stood down because he saw it would bring a “decisive military response.”
Tehran signals resolve and tables demands
And the conditions coming out of Tehran are not exactly a soft touch. State media has reported that the Iranian proposal is broad: halt the fighting, drop the sanctions, let us have our money, move your forces out of our neighborhood and pay up. It is a list that makes for an interesting read, especially since Trump called something similar “garbage” last week.
Security flashpoints and regional risk
For the most part, the truce with the US and Israel has held since April, but you can feel the tension. Drones have been seen heading from Iraq toward the Gulf, and the US has already taken an Iran-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean.
Vance says they are trying to stave off a nuclear arms race, which is in step with Trump’s hard line on the issue.
What it means for the days ahead
It is a lot of moving parts: the mediation from the Gulf, the Senate putting its foot down, and the market jitters. What happens next will be a test for the White House. Can they keep the shipping lanes open and hold off Congress? With fuel costs and his numbers in mind, the administration has some explaining to do if the war is to end as fast as he says.
