You could say the drive for these critical minerals has run headlong into politics. The US and Kazakhstan have put together a tungston pact that could upend supply chains, but now it’s being looked at closely. Why? Because as the government was mulling over as much as $1.6 billion in support, some of Donald and Eric Trump’s businesses were in place to make out on the side.
Why this mine is a big deal for US strategy
For Washington, getting its hands on a huge Kazakh reserve of tungsten is about nailing down a weak spot. You can’t build a missile warhead, a fighter jet or a semiconductor without it, and you certainly can’t have a modern defence. China has a stranglehold on the market and has been more than happy to ratchet up export rules, which makes any move to wean the US off of them all the more important.
Kaz Resources, the one with the rights from this agreement, is looking at an output of 12,000 metric tonnes or so once they’re in full swing. That’s on par with what the whole of America imports in a year, so if they hit those numbers, it will change the dynamic on price and who holds the cards.
How they made it happen at the top
It came down to a meeting at the St. Regis in New York back in September 2025. Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, was there with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, and by all accounts from those in the room, President Trump was on the line. After a long period of behind-the-scenes work, they got Tokayev to give the project the go-ahead.
The administration made it known before the ink was dry that it was on board for up to $1.6 billion to put behind the mine. They put pen to paper in Washington on Nov. 6, and in doing so, opened the door for Kaz Resources to tap into one of the world’s biggest untapped tungsten lodes.
When the money and the timing come under a microscope
Not long after the talking was done, you had firms with connections to the Trumps and the Lutnicks making their way to the table. If you look at the corporate filings, the moves are bunched up around the important dates, and it’s no wonder people are asking hard questions.
Take Dominari Securities, an outfit in Trump Tower with some of the Trump sons’ ownership in it. They and others put in for a 20% piece of a company with ties to the Kazakhstan effort, not long after that September get-together.
Then there’s Cantor Fitzgerald. It used to be in the hands of Howard Lutnick; now his boys, Brandon and Kyle, are running the show. They put in some work for ASP Isotopes to put up $210 million. These kinds of deals come with advisory fees, and the paperwork shows a web of financial connections between Dominari, ASP, Kaz, the Trumps and the Lutnicks.
The Kazakhstan side of the ledger was signed off on only six days after one of the Trump-adjacent moves. It doesn’t make a case on its own, but it does put a fine point on the issue of where public duty and private profit might be blurring on a bet like this.
And it’s not just this one. If you follow the money for either of these families, you’ll find stakes in 14 mining projects that have either asked for or been given a hand by the US. All told, we are looking at well over $8.9 billion in the form of loans, financing or the kind of regulatory nods they need to get moving.
What the other side is saying
Allegations of a conflict of interest have been put to rest by the White House, the Commerce Department and the parties in question. Here is how they put it:
– White House: We act in the best interest of the American people
– Commerce: Lutnick has put his Cantor Fitzgerald shares to one side
– Cantor Fitzgerald: We don’t call the shots on government money
– Kaz Resources: We were in talks with the Biden team first
– Eric Trump: I’m an investor, not a manager
Still, some want to see more oversight. Rep. Maxine Dexter has said Congress has a job to make sure the taxpayer is served and not the inner circle. It’s a sign of the unease over where national security and private money meet.
Even with the deal on the books, the feds haven’t given the final word on the financing and the shovels are only just in the ground. So you have your work cut out for you on both the market and the governance front as the project has to clear some hurdles.
Put simply, for the US, having a steady stream of tungsten is a no-brainer for our defences and our chip makers, particularly with China’s controls in place. For the investors with political ties, the optics are just as much on the line, and there’s a cost to be paid if the lines aren’t drawn clearly.
The thinking on the Kazakhstan side of things is sound: spread the risk, take some of the wind out of China’s sails and make sure we have what we need. The test will be whether they can pull it off without giving an inch to the in-crowd, as the agencies and lawmakers do their part.
Keep an eye on a few things in the coming months. The green light on the money. The fine print on the contracts and fees. And any new rules on conflicts that could become the standard for the next round of mineral deals. It will tell us if “America first” and a little bit of family business can sit in the same room.
