In a part of the world that is still some way from being calm and with energy costs high, the minister will be making a foray into six nations over ten days. The capstone of it all is the start of the UN Security Council 2028-29 push in New York on the 13th.
The MEA has put together this outreach in light of how the region is shifting. There is a clear reliance on the Gulf for both energy and the well-being of the diaspora. But with the Strait of Hormuz causing ripples in India’s energy bill, there is also a need to be part of the mediation to put some order in the security equation.
Why the timing is right
It is in the wake of a US-Iran accord and the wrap-up of some back-channel work in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani help. More of those discussions are in the offing, once the funeral for the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is out of the way.
You will find U.S. military in one form or another in each of the four Gulf ports of call, and they have all been in the crosshairs of Iranian action in the West Asia conflict. The MEA says the goal is to put some heft behind the bilateral relationship and get a read on what is happening in the neighbourhood.
Where and when: a six-nation plan
From the 5th to the 10th, Jaishankar will be with the top brass in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. After that it is on to New York for the 13th to open the UNSC drive, then to Brussels for the India-EU Trade and Technology Council.
Here is what is on the docket:
– July 5-10: Some face time with Gulf leadership
– July 13: The New York launch for the 2028-29 UNSC term
– July 14-15: The TTC in Brussels
Making the case for 2028-29
New York is where the formal campaign for a non-permanent seat begins. India has been at the table for 16 years in eight stints, the last being 2021-22. The 2028-29 period lines up with the next round of Lok Sabha elections.
There is an advantage to starting early while the rest of the world is looking at regional affairs. And by doing it in New York, you are at the heart of the system, in a position to talk to partners and those yet to be won over.
On energy, the diaspora and more
For India, the Gulf is about everything from crude to the welfare of its people. The MEA sees the trip as a chance to go over the state of play in the region, especially after the kind of friction and mediation we have seen with Qatar and Oman.
The ministry is tending to this with some low-key coordination. With Pakistan and the Gulf states mediating for an Iran truce, New Delhi wants to see some firmness in the sea lanes and in the countries where its workers are based.
Deals with the EU
The final leg in Brussels on the 14th and 15th will see the minister at the third India-EU TTC, sitting down with their side and the Belgians. The council, put in place in 2022, is all about the hard stuff: AI, semiconductors, quantum and cyber.
This comes after the FTA talks were wrapped up, though the EU has some red tape and legal checks to finish before it is done. Progress here is good for what India has in mind for its digital and manufacturing sectors.
What to keep an eye on
See what comes out of the Gulf, how the 13th in New York is received, and if there is any word from Brussels on the FTA. The way the MEA has laid it out, it is a mix of the multilateral, the technological and the security-focused, all in one go.
