Word is that China is mulling over this move, which would see the Chinese president try to put some good will between the US and North Korean leaders. It comes as there’s more activity around the nuclear programme and a fair bit of unease in the region.
If Beijing can get the dialogue back on track, it would be a clear sign they want to have a say in the security talk at a time when it matters. You might see some of the heat taken out of the missile and nuclear debate. But if it doesn’t work, you can bet the divides between Washington, Beijing and Pyongyang will only get wider.
China is still the one ally North Korea can count on for trade, political cover and whatnot. With the pandemic and closed borders behind them, you can see both sides putting their cooperation back together, and that has a way of being felt by everyone with a stake in the peninsula.
Signals pointing to a Pyongyang trip
Some in the South Korean government think Xi could be in Pyongyang as soon as next week. Others in the know say Chinese protocol people have already been over there, so the wheels are in motion for a top-level visit. A late May or early June date is also in the cards, though nothing is set in stone. The kind of legwork you’re seeing now is usually the prelude to something of this calibre.
Here are the key markers officials and observers are watching:
– Chinese advance teams visited Pyongyang recently
– Travel could be as early as next week
– Timing likely late in May or early June
You won’t hear from the foreign ministry in Seoul about it. That reticement is telling; it shows how careful the capitals are in reading whether this is a real overture or just a ploy.
Trump-Kim track and China’s leverage
Then there’s Trump, who has made it known he’s up for re-engaging with Kim and has put a positive spin on their relationship. They had three well-publicised sit-downs in his first term to cool off the nuclear issue, before everything ground to a halt.
Beijing figures that by playing middleman they can put some life back into the process. Xi and Trump were in the same room last week, and officials say that has a bearing on any plan to open a line to Pyongyang. It’s a way for China to show it has a hand in the game and to see if the North is in a mood to negotiate.
Kim has been making sure the optics are right with his partners of late. He was in Beijing last year and was seen with Xi and Vladimir Putin at a military parade – not something you see every day.
What each side stands to gain
All in all, if Beijing can shepherding these talks, it looks like a stabiliser. For the US, it’s a chance to go down a road that once worked. For the North, it’s some room to manoeuvre.
But don’t be under any illusions about the risks. Hopes have been dashed before, and a flop would make the next go-around that much tougher. So eyes will be on the details of any meeting to see if there’s any meat to it.
What to watch next
Right now, we’re looking at two possible windows: one very near, and another in the latter part of May or the start of June. If we see some confirmed travel or movement in Pyongyang, we’ll know it’s for real.
Statements from Seoul or a response from the other side could change the picture in a hurry. For the moment, it’s down to whether Beijing can make some headway in setting up a fresh round of Trump-Kim talks.
And even if Xi doesn’t end up making the trip, the fact that it’s on the table is enough to put everyone in mind of where the next move on the peninsula is likely to come from.
