A document put around in early June and some allied officials put it this way: the United States is making for a hard pullback of the air and sea power it has with NATO in Europe. It’s a change that could leave the alliance with a thinner air umbrella and less of a watchful eye at sea when it can least afford it. We’re talking about fighters, warships and the like.
Then there are the warnings from the allies’ side of the table. They say the plan may limit your options for long-range strikes and make it harder to keep tabs on things like Russian subs. The New York Times was the first to put these details out, and they had two top European officials in on the planning to back them up.
Why the shift matters for NATO missions
If you want to run an operation some distance away, you need refuelling, eyes in the sky and carrier aviation. Take those away and you’re looking at shorter flights, fewer sorties and a more difficult time patrolling the seas.
US European Command is calling it a rebalancing. “There’s been an unhealthy co-dependence on us,” General Alexus G Grynkewich put it, in reference to the NATO Force Model. He figures a little recalibration is in order to make the rest of the alliance’s defence plans a bit more down to earth.
What the US plans to move or cut
It all comes down to a written brief the US has given to its allies. In it, you can see where they are going to trim or reposition their assets in Europe, and it covers some of the more vital categories.
Here is what the document puts forward:
– A submarine with missiles and an aircraft carrier to be moved elsewhere.
– Some warships and the jets that come with them are being pulled back.
– F-16s and F-15Es will go from 150 or so to 100.
– We’ll be seeing 15 maritime reconnaissance planes instead of 26.
– All eight of the tankers in Europe are out.
– One of the two bomber groups is being reassigned.
The message to our partners is that we want Europe and Canada to pick up some of the load for conventional defence here. As the report has it, we’re trying to nudge them to build up where they are most lacking.
Burden-sharing push and official reactions
In a short statement, US European Command let it be known they’ve told the allies we are right-sizing what we put into the NATO Force Model. It’s in line with the 2026 National Defense Strategy and what they have in mind for a NATO 3.0.
Allison Hart, with NATO, doesn’t mince words: “We have over-relied on US forces.” But as Europe and Canada put in more, the balance will even out. She sees it as a way to make the alliance stronger by not having to lean on one ally for everything.
Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary for War for Policy, is the one driving this, per the allied side of the story. US people say they’ve been in talks with NATO for months on this to make sure the Europeans step up before we sit down for the next round of discussions.
What is unclear and what to watch next
You won’t find a timeline from Washington on this, and the Pentagon won’t give you any hard numbers. The Defence Department has been quiet on the phone when we asked for more.
US European Command has only made a general point about right-sizing. So for now, the allies are left to figure out the pace of it while they make do with fewer US tankers, a slimmer carrier force and not as many recon runs in European waters.
