There is a good deal of strain at this two-day meeting that got under way on May 21. You have the Russia-Ukraine war and trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, and on top of that, some new questions about U.S. troop deployments. It’s all meant to be a stress test before July.
Fractures exposed over Iran and base access
The most open disagreement has been over Iran. “President Trump is very disappointed,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, of some allies who won’t allow Washington to use their bases for any action there. He made an example of Spain. “Why be in NATO if you’re not going to give us access to your base?” he asked. “Other countries have been very helpful, but we have to talk about it.”
It’s the kind of thing you’ve heard from Trump for months, as he’s chafed at the reluctance of some to put together a coalition to open up the Strait of Hormuz, which Rubio says is for the most part shut down by Iran. Before he heads to India, Rubio has been in the field to put some minds at ease.
Confusion over U.S. troops and NATO reassurance
Then there is the matter of U.S. forces. The administration nixed some moves to Poland and Germany, only for Trump to put out a post on May 21, 2026: “the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland.” What does that mean? A brigade we thought was off the table? New troops? Cuts somewhere else? The Pentagon pointed us to the White House and we didn’t get an answer.
NATO has tried to make light of it, saying these were in the works, but a few of our partners were caught off guard. “We’ve known for a year some U.S. withdrawals were in the offing,” Mark Rutte, the secretary general, told us on May 20. His point is that Europe and Canada need to step up and do more for the conventional defence of the alliance. Gen Alexus Grynkewich of the U.S. put it this way: security in Europe is fine, but you should see more drawdowns down the line.
Rubio wouldn’t be drawn on how the American footprint might change under the Force Model. But on May 22, 2026, some of the top brass from the Pentagon are in Brussels to give the 32-nation alliance a read on the U.S. side of things.
Helsingborg agenda: from budgets to Ukraine
On paper, we are in Sweden to tie up loose ends for the summit in Turkey. Rutte has been on the case, asking ministers to put some meat on the bones of what they promised in The Hague last year – to put 5 per cent of GDP into defence by 2035. “How fast can we go from a commitment to something we can actually use?” is his way of putting it. He wants to see a ramp-up in production on both sides of the ocean.
Based on this week’s discussions, the priorities now include:
– A credible path to 5 per cent by 2035
– Plans to ramp defence industrial production
– A framework for predictable Ukraine support
– Clarity on U.S. troop levels in Europe
– A common stance on Strait of Hormuz
Ukraine is on the agenda, too. On Thursday, we had their foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, in the room to make sure our support is something they can count on for the long haul.
This is all part of Rubio’s tour to steady the nerves of allies ruffled by Trump’s barbs. He’s been making the rounds, from Munich to Italy, where he saw the Pope and some officials in the wake of the row over the Iran war and crime.
You could say there is some hard feelings left over from the past, like the comments on Greenland. So now it is a matter of making the strategy work. For Rutte, it is about connecting the budget to the factory floor and the battlefield. And for Washington, it is a balancing act: square away the troop numbers and show why NATO is worth it for America without making enemies of your friends.
Politics, pressure, and the road to Ankara
In the end, it comes down to two timelines. There is the short one, running to Ankara to put in place the plans for spending and Ukraine. Then there is the 2035 mark, which will be the real measure of whether we have the will and the means to back it up.
