“The fears of a recession have been overblown,” says Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. He sees the latest growth figures, our buffers and an ever-widening digital presence as proof that a slowdown isn’t in the cards for India.
Why the recession talk misses India
You can hear the global warnings about a downturn, but Fadnavis says they haven’t made their way to an Indian slump. In his words, the doomsday forecasts have been put in their place by the numbers and the milestones we’ve hit.
He puts it this way: we are now the fourth-largest economy in the world, having put the $4.5 trillion mark in the rear-view mirror, and we are well on our way to $5 trillion. That is momentum you don’t get when you’re in a recession.
Digital rails change the growth conversation
The chief minister is touting an economy where more and more of what we do is online. We are looking at Rs 314 lakh crore in digital payments in a year, and the UPI has found a home in close to 30 other nations.
That kind of ecosystem makes for better efficiency and reach, which is what gives us some staying power while others are in the red. It’s the story of how our tech-driven financial side is now part of the bigger picture.
To make his point, here is what he put on the table:
– India is still the top dog in terms of growth among major economies
– A $4.5 trillion+ GDP, putting us in fourth
– Digital payments up to Rs 314 lakh crore
Macro buffers and external strength
When it comes to foreign exchange, Fadnavis says we have about Rs 66 lakh crore in reserves – enough to put food on the table for 11 months of imports. He will tell you that wasn’t always the case; there were times when we couldn’t even cover a month.
There was a time when people would question if we could handle our foreign debt without some help from the institutions. Not anymore. He is confident we could see to 94 per cent of our external obligations in a day if we had to.
Growth prints cited by Fadnavis
Look at the last quarter from January to March and you’ll see a 7.8 per cent move in the GDP. For FY26, he is talking about 7.7 per cent.
Put those two together and you have your answer as to why we are outpacing the rest of the world and why the recession narrative doesn’t hold water with our data.
Political context and what to track next
This all came out of a press conference to note 12 years under the Narendra Modi government. Fadnavis’s line is that you have to look at the continuity in policy, the infrastructure and the digitisation to see why we are ahead of the pack.
With the right combination of growth, reserves and some new ways of doing business, he says we are on a solid footing. The $5 trillion figure is something we can see coming, and for now, we keep the title of the fastest grower.
