On Friday, Pakistan made a point of its diplomatic standing by confirming a final version of the deal is in the offing and putting in for some credit as the mediator. The fine print and a date for the pen are not on the table yet, so for Washington and Tehran, the stakes are up while they try to make sense of the noise.
Pakistan wants its due for the mediation
Sharif has put Islamabad in the role of the one who kept the talks from going off the rails, or at least that is his story in the wake of an “intense” misinformation drive. He says the naysayers have been overruled and Pakistan is in the room with both parties to see it through.
‘We have an agreed-upon text,’ Sharif wrote in a post, adding that he is in close contact with the two sides to put the finishing touches on. ‘Peace has never been this close as it is now.’
He was not forthcoming with what is in the document or when you might see it signed. In the vacuum of hard facts, you can have your pick of interpretations, even as Pakistan makes no secret of wanting some public kudos for its part in this.
Tehran is feeling good; Washington is less sure
Just ahead of the news from Islamabad, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, put it simply: a deal with the U.S. has ‘never been closer.’ He referred to the draft as the ‘Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,’ a nod to where the earlier haggling took place.
Araghchi asked the press to hold off on any armchair analysis until the ink is dry. Some in Iran had been at odds with that an hour or so before, shooting down talk of a near-term signing and pointing to a review that was not yet done.
Then there was Donald Trump. The U.S. president put out a screenshot of Araghchi’s words and then had a few things to say about the leaks coming out of Iran. ‘The terms they report have NOTHING to do with the terms we put in writing,’ he said.
Where the rubber meets the road on the draft
As the story war heats up, so do the claims. You have Iranian outlets saying Tehran will be in charge of the Strait of Hormuz and will not back down on its right to enrich uranium.
A top White House man would have it another way: that Iran has caved on the nuclear programme, will scrap its stockpile and open up the waterway. This kind of divide is why you won’t find an official version of the text from either side just yet.
Even as Sharif chimes in, officials in Iran were as of a few hours ago saying their own housekeeping was not finished. The chasm between the good vibes and the unaddressed particulars is what is in the way of a ceremony.
What a deal could mean
Take the proponents at their word and the accord could cool a hot region, take some of the sting out of the nuclear issue and let ships run unimpeded through a vital pass. It would also put Pakistan in a better light as a power that can get adversaries to come to terms.
But it comes down to the nitty-gritty of inspections and how you verify compliance. If the two sides don’t read the same thing, a paper agreement is only as good as its ability to be put into practice.
The reason for Pakistan’s move
In saying the matter is settled, Islamabad is making a case that we are at the end of the line and trying to head off those it says are muddying the waters. It is also a way of putting the onus on the U.S. and Iran to square away any discrepancies and put a time on it.
You have to wonder about the kind of pull Pakistan has with the negotiators and what it is really privy to. It is a bold statement that has people at home and overseas looking for something to follow up on.
If you want to put an end to the guesswork, here is what is left for the various officials to do:
– Put out the real terms, not in dribs and drabs
– Give us a time and place for the signing
– Get on the same page about the nuclear and maritime side of things
– Make clear what Pakistan’s job is once it is all done
Looking forward
All the fine talk from the capitals in Pakistan and Iran aside, there is still a difference of opinion on the enrichment of uranium and who runs the show in the Strait of Hormuz. That is why you haven’t seen a date for the signatures.
Pakistan’s word on a final text has changed the mood. What we need to see next is a document the two sides stand by, or a joint statement to tell us if we are as close to peace as they say we are.
