The burial is coming up next week, but what has everyone talking is this: will 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader who was hurt in the 28 February strikes, come out from behind the scenes? One way or the other, it will be felt in Tehran and well past its borders.
Why his first showing is important
You could say Mojtaba Khamenei’s hold on things has been put to the test by not being seen. He has been a no-show in public, on the telly, or even on a tape since he took over after his father passed.
In Iran, the big state occasions are where you put on a front of order and togetherness. If he is there, it tells your base you are well and in control. Don’t show up and you’ll have some explaining to do about who’s really making the calls.
For the political class and those on either side of the aisle, it comes down to this:
– Some answers to the succession question after all this time
– A read on whether policy will hold in wartime
– Keeping the different factions in line
A funeral with a message
They have the funeral planned as a display of both grief and authority. It starts in Tehran on July 4, then you have Qom and some of the shrines in Iraq, before it wraps up in Mashhad on the 9th.
On July 9, they will lay 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to rest by the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad. The word from officials is to expect a grand, well-orchestrated send-off for one of the region’s most tenured leaders.
He was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Feb 28, the very day the war with the two of them began, and it has made for the biggest shift in power since Khomeini’s time.
What we have heard from him
Since he won’t be in the room, any word from Mojtaba Khamenei has been put out by TV or the press. The intent has been to show some backbone in the face of the war with Israel and the U.S.
Back in mid-March, a clip on state TV had him saying Iran ‘does not want war’ but won’t give up what is right. He vouched for holding the line on the Strait of Hormuz and put out a warning about the US bases. Then there were the thanks to the fighters and a call for unity.
Come April, he was on record calling it a ‘new phase’ and making sure to note that all the resistance fronts are one and the same. At the same time, he was pushing for good relations with our neighbours, while not letting up on the threats to the places where US troops are.
More recently, on National Persian Gulf Day, he was for more protests and unity, even in a lull in the fighting. On Sunday, for National Judiciary Week, he put out a statement to go after those who have committed crimes in these wars – a nod to his father’s death.
Still some questions on his health and safety
The state media will have it that the airstrike left him with bad leg wounds and disfigurement to the face. But they are quick to add he is in his head, part of the decision-making over a link, and mending.
That doesn’t stop the talk, of course. You have your people saying it’s for security, and others pointing to the damage he took.
Things to keep an eye on from July 4 to 9
There is room for a debut in the days ahead, from the ceremonies in the capital to the interment in Mashhad. It would be in keeping with how it was done; Ali Khamenei was always at the memorials for Ruhollah Khomeini.
Here is what to look for while the funeral is in progress:
– A live shot of Mojtaba Khamenei
– His own voice on a recording, not someone else’s
– Or just more of the same written word
It all comes back to being seen. Put in a strong showing and you can put an end to the whispers. Fail to appear and you may be the leader in name, but not in the eyes of the public.
