It was a point Rubio made to lawmakers on Tuesday: the 56-year-old is alive and in the mix, and that alone could be enough to put a new spin on the kind of talks and market jitters we’ve been seeing since the US and Israel struck back on February 28.
Rubio says Mojtaba Khamenei is active
In front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio said the leader is making himself felt in Tehran in a more hands-on way. He put it in measured but no-nonsense terms.
‘I think there are indications out there that he is increasingly engaging at some level,’ he said, alluding to the kind of influence you can have from within the power structure in Iran.
You could say it puts to rest some of the talk of the last few weeks over what has become of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been a no-show in public since he came into office.
Why the comment matters for negotiations
There is a direct line, according to Rubio, between the Supreme Leader and the kind of diplomacy that has yet to get off the ground as this conflict wears on and energy markets stay on edge. Washington is still in the market for a deal, but he was clear: you need to see some real moves from Iran to make that happen.
‘There is the prospect before us, which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week,’ he told the senators, with the caveat that Tehran has to come to the table and accept our terms.
What we’re after, in a nutshell, is some nuclear restraint and open seas to take the pressure off on shipping and energy.
Core US demands as stated by Rubio
Before we even think about lifting sanctions, here is what Washington is looking for:
– Severe and long-term limits on enrichment
– Or they can just do away with it
– A straight opening of the Strait of Hormuz
– No more tolls or red tape for ships
– Some help in clearing out the mines in the waterway
– And they have to stop targeting commercial vessels
He was blunt about why the sanctions are in place: ‘highly enriched uranium’ and ‘their nuclear activities’. ‘If they agree to give up those things, there will be sanctions relief,’ he put it.
On the question of safe passage, Rubio said: ‘They have to announce very clearly “The straits are now open, we’re not charging a toll”.’ Then he added, ‘We will help remove the mines that they put in there, and they will not fire on ships.’
Succession amid war and public absence
Mojtaba Khamenei is the one in charge now, following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the first round of strikes from the US and Israel on Feb. 28. That set off a war that is in its third month.
Since then, the new leader has been out of sight. Some in Washington have even put it around that he was hurt in the attacks.
When you don’t see the top man in Tehran, it makes you wonder how decisions are being made. But with Rubio talking up his engagement, it sounds like the leadership is holding firm while staying under the radar.
All this has done a number on the Middle East and the global energy scene. You only have to look at the Strait of Hormuz to know that any change there will be felt in oil and gas right away.
State funeral plans for Ali Khamenei
While the talking points are being worked out, officials in Iran have put the word out on a three-day state funeral for the late Ayatollah. They had to put it off from early March because of the war.
Now they are looking to hold it down the road, probably in the month of Muharram. We should see some activity in Qom and Mashhad, as well as in Tehran, where he will be laid to rest.
It is a case of the conflict reordering the national calendar, even as we are left with open questions on the nuclear and sanctions front.
What comes next
From what Rubio is saying, there is a way for Washington to de-escalate, but it is a fine line and it goes through some hard facts on the part of Iran regarding their uranium and the strait.
So the question is whether the kind of ‘increasing’ role we are hearing about from Mojtaba Khamenei is what it takes to make it happen. That will tell us a lot about the direction of diplomacy and the markets in the coming weeks.
