The state is on edge as Lala edges closer. The Big Island is under a hurricane warning while forecasters have flagged the weekend for the possibility of some very destructive flooding. Should the storm build to Category 1 status in the vicinity of the Big Island on Saturday, it will put infrastructure, travel and lives on alert.
Why this storm is different
There is a historic element to what is coming, meteorologists say. A strike on the Big Island by Lala would mark the first time a hurricane has hit there in over a century. But even if it does not make landfall, the rain and gusty winds from its outer reaches can be felt from Maui to Oahu.
It is the water one should fear more than the wind. The National Hurricane Center is calling for 8 to 12 inches of rain on the Big Island and Maui, with the odd spot on the Big Island seeing as much as 25 inches by Sunday. Given the steep topography of Hawaii, those downpours can quickly turn into life-threatening flash floods and landslides.
Timeline and track to watch
Lala was 365 miles to the east-southeast of Hilo as of the last word from the US National Hurricane Center, chugging west-northwest at 12 mph with 60-mph sustained winds. The forecast has the centre of the system in the neighbourhood of the Big Island come Saturday afternoon.
After that, Lala is expected to run the gauntlet past the other islands, or just to their south, heading into Sunday. By Monday the storm should be tracking west, well clear of Hawaii. It may persist as a typhoon or hurricane in the central and western Pacific for a week or more.
What could intensify or limit impacts
Wind shear and dry air have left Lala something of a lopsided and disorganised affair. The worst of it is likely to come from the northern side where the winds are strongest. While the terrain of the Big Island might slow the storm and cause it to weaken in some measure, that same deceleration can mean the heavy rain lingers.
Who is under alerts now
As the situation tightens, authorities have put out a number of advisories. The current standing is as follows:
– A hurricane warning for the Big Island
– Maui County is under a tropical storm warning
– Oahu and Kauai County are on a tropical storm watch
Do not expect everything to happen at once, officials caution. Hurricane-force winds are due near the Big Island by Saturday morning, but conditions in Maui County will not set in until late in the day.
Rain, wind and surf risks
In addition to the 8 to 12 inches of rain in store for Maui and the Big Island, isolated areas of the latter could see 25. The rest of the state is looking at 4 to 6 inches, with nearly a foot possible in parts of Maui. Mountainous zones are of particular concern for mudslides and flash flooding.
One can expect enough gusts to break trees and knock out power, particularly at higher elevations where saturated ground makes them more vulnerable. Residents would be wise to plan for outages of a few hours or days and to keep an eye on falling timber.
Some storm surge and coastal flooding is in the cards as Lala gets close, particularly on the east and south shores. Boaters and anyone on the beach should be wary of the extremely rough surf that will develop around the Big Island and between the islands for the duration of the weekend.
What authorities and residents should do next
Emergency managers are making it clear: finalise your hurricane plan and stay on top of official updates. County officials have already called off events and opened shelters in anticipation of the deluge. For those in areas prone to flooding or landslides, the advice is to get out before the roads are blocked if an evacuation becomes necessary.
The strain is showing on travel. FlightAware reports 32 delays in and out of Honolulu’s Daniel K. Inouye International Airport and 24 from Hilo as of 3:12 p.m. in New York. It is best to check with your airline and factor in some extra time.
Warmer waters and a developing El Nino have made for more hospitable conditions for hurricanes in these parts. After the close call with Fausto earlier in the year and the heavy rain from the Kona lows, the lesson with Lala is obvious. Do not wait for landfall; prepare now.
