It was a good day for Indian gold and silver ETFs on Friday as they defied the softness in the world market and made the most of a well-timed tariff reduction. You could see the numbers: silver funds were up over 3%, gold around 1.5%, with a few even spiking 5% at one point. All while the mood was being lifted by talk of a possible peace deal between the US and Iran.
Drivers behind ETF outperformance
The ETFs have been putting up better figures than the metals themselves, despite some lacklustre international pricing. Spot gold, for instance, was at $4,193.58 an ounce on Friday, down 0.5 percent and heading for a 3.1 percent drop for the week. (You could have had it for $4,191.17 earlier in the day, with a 3.2 percent weekly loss in the offing.)
Then there was the matter of the import tariff. Come June 12, the base price for bringing in gold was knocked down by $80 to $1,343 per 10 grams; for silver, the cut was $276 to $2,092 a kilo. It’s a way of chipping away at the assessable base for customs, which can make for lower costs when you’re importing bullion.
What moved on the screen
Silver did the talking for much of the morning. By 11:20 am, Nippon India’s SilverBeES was 3.05 percent higher at Rs 228.14. The ICICI Prudential fund was in the same boat at 3.05% for Rs 238.08, SBI’s was at 3.02% (Rs 233.62) and Tata’s had put in 3.11% to reach Rs 23.18.
Gold wasn’t far behind. Nippon India’s Gold BeES ticked up 1.56 percent to Rs 121.14, ICICI Prudential 1.50 to Rs 125.54, SBI 1.51 to Rs 124.86 and Tata 1.43 to Rs 14.22.
Some of the intraday movers made for a wider show. Baroda BNP Paribas’ gold ETF was the star, running up 5 percent to Rs 147 from where it had closed before. Bandhan’s was 4 percent in the green, with SBI and HDFC each up 2. On the silver side, 360 One put on 5 percent, while SBI, HDFC and Tata were in the 4 percent range and a handful of others close to 3.
Macro cues: oil slide and de-escalation hopes
Risk appetite has been stoked by crude pulling back to a two-month low and the notion that Washington and Tehran might come to an understanding. After nixing some planned strikes, US President Donald Trump put out word that a deal is in the offing for as soon as this weekend. He said the main points have been put to bed in no uncertain terms by the US and a host of others – Israel, the Saudis, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt.
You could see the markets react. On the MCX, July 2026 silver was up 2 percent, or Rs 5,167, to Rs 2,44,817 a kg. Gold for August 2026 also put in a good performance, climbing Rs 649 to Rs 1,49,581 per 10 grams. Over in the US, gold futures for August were 2.4 percent higher at $4,212.70, though spot silver took a 0.4 percent hit to $67.10 an ounce.
What it means for you
There’s been a call for some restraint from the usual exuberance following the upturn. “Think of gold as a form of long-term portfolio insurance, not something to trade on a short time frame,” says Abhishek Bhilwaria, a partner with BhilwariaFinserv. With prices in a post-correction lull, he is for a more measured way of going about it.
Bhilwaria is all for keeping your positions in check and sticking with liquid, low-cost options rather than physical bullion, which can be a headache with storage and premiums. The bottom line: be patient when things get chippy and don’t let panic get the better of you.
Some of his advice in a nutshell:
– 5 to 10 percent of your portfolio in gold
– Buy on the dips, but in stages
– Don’t sell in a panic
– An ETF or fund is usually better than holding on to the metal
Then there are the short-term types who have their eyes on the numbers. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart is watching for support on MCX gold between Rs 1,47,700 and Rs 1,46,300, with resistance up at the Rs 1,50,000-Rs 1,51,500 mark. For silver, he has support in mind at Rs 2,36,600-Rs 2,32,000 and resistance at Rs 2,43,300-Rs 2,47,700. His take? Be strict with your stop losses and book profits when you can.
The reason for the split
Even with equities on the up – the Sensex was 770 points in the green and Nifty had put on 200 by 11:19 am – money has been making its way into precious metals. India VIX was down over 4.5 percent. It’s less of a risk-off move and more of a hedge while you keep a little risk on.
And with the new tariff numbers in play, Indian bullion products have a bit of a structural edge with import costs coming down, even if global spots are soft. Should the geopolitical scene calm and oil stay put, ETFs will be the go-to. But given the tone of global bullion, selectivity is in order.
All eyes now on how fast any US-Iran accord comes together and whether the tariff support holds. We’ve had two sessions of gains on the MCX and the technicals are set, so for those who like to be methodical, there’s room to add on the way down.
