Sanjeev Chopra, the Food Secretary, said the 110-120 million tonne estimate is what they now expect after the rain and hail damaged crops. This is less positive than earlier hopes, and happens as the government buys more, exports are slow, and the new market plan is prepared.
Forecast trimmed after unseasonal rain
Chopra explained the estimate takes into account the recent damage to the crops, and he thinks the final amount will be somewhere between 110 and 120 million tonnes. He pointed out that the amount predicted before the bad weather and the amount expected now, after considering the damage, are quite different according to both the industry and the government.
The Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India is predicting 110.65 million tonnes for 2025-26. This is just a bit more than the 109.63 million tonnes they said we’d have for 2024-25, once the weather’s effects were taken into account.
The Ministry of Agriculture had thought there would be 120.21 million tonnes of wheat (compared to 117.94 million tonnes last year) before the bad weather occurred. Chopra says the actual amount will be somewhere between the Federation’s prediction and the Ministry’s.
State-level impact and survey findings
The Federation’s yearly survey shows that the unseasonal rain and hail from February to April moderately to seriously hurt the wheat crop in nine states. This weather interrupted the grain filling and harvest times in several areas.
The states flagged with crop impact include:
– Punjab
– West Bengal
– Uttar Pradesh
– Haryana
– Bihar
– Madhya Pradesh
– Rajasthan
– Gujarat
– Maharashtra
Procurement targets raised to stabilise supplies
So far this rabi marketing season (April to March), the government has bought 16.4 million tonnes of wheat. To ensure a good supply, the amount they aim to buy has been increased from 30 million tonnes to 34.5 million tonnes.
Revised state targets, as shared, are:
– Madhya Pradesh: 7.8 to 10 million tonnes
– Uttar Pradesh: 1 to 2.5 million tonnes
– Rajasthan: 2.1 to 2.35 million tonnes
– Bihar: 18,000 to 180,000 tonnes
– Uttarakhand: 1,000 to 50,000 tonnes
Chopra stated that the rules for buying wheat have been loosened in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar. The goal for other states is still the same, and Uttarakhand isn’t included in the relaxed rules.
Exports permitted but parity bites
The government has allowed 5 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of wheat products to be exported in stages. But, Chopra says, these exports aren’t moving quickly because of the price situation, and there isn’t much interest in buying at the current rates.
On March 31st, the government had 22.2 million tonnes of wheat stored. How quickly the government buys wheat, and how they manage the amounts they have in storage, will be very important as more wheat starts coming in and the weather-adjusted estimates become definite.
Policy steps and what to watch
Chopra says a new plan for selling wheat on the open market will be released in the next two months. He wants flour mills to buy wheat directly, instead of relying on this plan to get their supplies.
The Secretary’s comments show how important it is to maintain a steady supply of wheat, given the uncertainty caused by the weather. Industry predictions and official figures will get closer together as the wheat comes in and the full extent of the damage is known.
Important things to watch in the next few weeks are how quickly the government is buying wheat, how much wheat is arriving from the states affected by the weather, and how much money can be made from exports. Chopra said the final amount of wheat produced will depend on how all of these factors work out within the 110-120 million tonne range.
For both people who buy wheat and flour mills, how much the government buys, how much they allow to be exported, and how they manage their own wheat supplies will affect how much wheat is available. And with a new market plan being developed, everyone involved will be looking for information about prices and how the plan will work to help them plan for the next stage.
