This Wednesday’s get-together is a test of whether Washington can hold the line on some very delicate negotiations with Iran. Tensions are up, and the president is making a play to bring his people around a strategy that has the potential to change the game in West Asia.
It’s no coincidence when you look at the calendar. The session is in the wake of his trip to Walter Reed and some questions about how he’s been showing up in public. He’s 80 in a few weeks. You won’t see a full agenda from officials, but expect national security and the Middle East to take up most of the time.
Why Camp David, and why now
You don’t go to Camp David for a regular day at the office. It’s for when you need to be in a room with your people and have things under control. By having the Cabinet there, the administration is putting its hand on the table for some unity as it tries to make these diplomatic inroads stick.
Not that it’s been smooth sailing. Some new trouble on Tuesday has made for a more complicated picture than the one they were painting a few days ago. The choice of venue says it all: this is an inflection point for the White House, not just another item on the docket.
An emerging Iran framework meets fresh tensions
Trump was only saying a few days ago that a deal with Iran was ‘largely done’, pointing to some work on the Strait of Hormuz. But the good feeling in the White House has run into some hard reality on the ground.
Back on May 25, word was that the U.S. and Iran were homing in on a final accord. The idea was to use that as a springboard for a wider reset in the region, with more than just the two of them at the table.
Regional players eyed for a wider reset
We had a conference call on Saturday, May 23, with heads of state from Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain. It was a way of making sure everyone had a say in the deal as it was coming together.
Trump is keen to have the Saudis on board in a formal way. Getting Riyadh in would mean a lot for energy and security, though it’s bound to ruffle some feathers with the hardliners in the room.
Who is at the table and what is at stake
The whole Cabinet should be in for the Maryland retreat. There’s some extra eyes on Tulsi Gabbard after you read last week’s reports that she’s being shown the door by some in the White House. They haven’t put any comment out on that one.
What’s on the line is pretty straightforward. Open up the Strait of Hormuz and you lower the risk for shippers; a ceasefire and you put out some of the hot spots. Then there’s the home front, where the administration wants to be able to point to a win in foreign policy.
Here’s what to keep an eye on from Camp David:
– How they plan to sequence and verify a ceasefire
– A defined place for Saudi Arabia in the mix
– Dealing with the hostilities we saw on Tuesday
– If Gabbard is in the room or not
– What kind of message comes out after the Walter Reed trip
What comes next
Wednesday will tell us where we stand. If they come away with a solid plan, you can expect to see a push to close the book on a ceasefire and the issues around the Strait. If not, you can count on the other side to try and slow things down.
They’re not giving up all the details, but the objective is plain: calm the situation in the Middle East, keep the lines of communication with Tehran open and make sure the region is with you. In the next 48 hours, we’ll see if the White House can make some of this progress last.
