Pakistan has moved a large part of its air force quite a distance into the Middle East because of the possible US-Iran talks in Islamabad. This isn’t just about routes and where the planes will fly. Is this large movement of aircraft a genuine security requirement, or a careful plan to regain respect in diplomacy and show how important Pakistan is?
A high-stakes escort for a fragile opening
Islamabad is getting ready for what could be the most important discussions between the US and Iran in many years. But even as the dates are being finalized, there’s still doubt about whether the talks will happen as planned.
Because there’s only a very shaky two-week period of peace right now, Pakistani officials are worried that anything going wrong could stop the talks. Specifically, they’re concerned about Israel attacking, or something happening along the route the Iranian representatives will take. This worry has led to what some experts are calling a very strong protective presence.
The Pakistan Air Force has placed fighter jets near Bandar Abbas in Iran, to meet the Iranian plane and fly with it all the way to Islamabad. The flight isn’t long, about three hours, but the protection of these aircraft goes across many borders and airspace where there are conflicts.
The reason for this is simple. If Pakistan can guarantee a safe trip, it’s less likely that one mistake will turn this opportunity for discussion into a full-blown crisis. However, the amount of aircraft involved also suggests another purpose: to look like Pakistan is in control.
What Pakistan actually deployed
Pakistan has sent a combination of JF-17 Thunder and F-16 fighter planes to the front lines for protection. Supporting these are IL-78 tanker planes to allow the fighters to stay in the air for extended periods, and C-130 Hercules transport planes for supplying the operation with what it needs.
Airborne Warning and Control Systems – essentially the “eyes in the sky” – are making the whole thing work. AWACS planes are constantly scanning from within Pakistan’s airspace to the Persian Gulf. This monitoring system can tell the fighter planes where to go, identify unknown aircraft, and make sure military and civilian planes don’t get in each other’s way.
The area being covered is larger than just Iran. Tracking of flights shows Pakistan Air Force activity near the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both of which have been defense allies of Pakistan for a long time. This shows that Pakistan is working with countries throughout the Gulf region, and isn’t just providing a plane-to-plane escort.
At the same time, Pakistan has activated its air defense systems in the south and west of the country. This sends multiple messages: the flight path is safe, the capital city is protected, and Pakistan is leading the way.
Islamabad turns fortress as it courts relevance
In Islamabad itself, the city looks like a place hosting a very important meeting with the highest level of security. Key roads have been closed, many more security personnel have been deployed, and important buildings have been completely surrounded. One minister said that a complete plan is in place to give all visitors from other countries completely reliable security.
The people who are supposed to come make the situation even more pressing. US Vice President JD Vance will head the American team. Iran expects to send Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of their Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, their Foreign Minister. If they actually meet, it would be the first time anyone at that level from the two countries has spoken face to face since revolutions in 1979.
That symbolic importance is important to Pakistan. After a lot of trouble with the economy and some mistakes in diplomacy in recent months, being the host of a major breakthrough would completely change how Pakistan is seen. Officials also point to their part in getting the recent short stop to fighting happening, with China quietly helping, and say that a successful meeting could make a longer lasting peace.
For a government that really wants to create a new image of itself as a skilled peacemaker, showing its military is ready is also a political performance. Everything from the road closures to the radar sweeps shows ability. The hope is that both people in Pakistan and in the rest of the world will see this readiness as leadership, and not as being worried. It’t not an easy thing to guarantee security. The Middle East is still unstable, and particularly so on the border with Lebanon. Even though fighting has stopped in most places, there has been fighting there. Letting a high-level group from Iran fly through airspace where there’s disagreement about who controls it is seriously risky.
Security needs versus optics and credibility
However, Pakistan also has a problem with how it’s seen. People were confused about what the ceasefire included, specifically Lebanon, and this damaged Pakistan’s reputation as a peacemaker. Pakistan’s Prime Minister said the ceasefire was everywhere, and Lebanon was part of that. The United States and Israel disagreed, and then Iran used Pakistan’s statement, making the confusion even worse.
This going back and forth made people wonder if Pakistan exaggerated how much it was involved or completely misunderstood the situation. Given this, the large number of planes providing security seems partly meant to improve Pakistan’s reputation. If the meetings happen and go smoothly, the security escort will show Pakistan can do the job. If they don’t happen, or anything goes wrong, the whole thing could be seen as just for show.
The way Pakistan is talking about stopping trouble adds another layer to the meaning of this show of force. A big, very public display of aircraft tells anyone who might cause problems that the skies are being watched, and the country hosting the talks is serious. It also tells the major world powers that Pakistan is still able to act when a lot is on the line.
The angry exchange between Israel and Pakistan added to the tensions. After Pakistan’s Defense Minister called Israel “evil” and a “curse on humanity,” Israel’s Prime Minister strongly criticized the comment. The Pakistani minister later took the comment down. This made people worry Israel might attack in response or try to spread fear about the air route.
Regional variables and the path ahead
Lebanon is still the biggest and most immediate problem. Within hours of the ceasefire being announced, Israel carried out some of its heaviest bombing in Lebanon, killing hundreds of people in a single day. The attacks did become less intense later, but the damage to trust was done. Tehran (Iran) said they had doubts about traveling while attacks continued, although Iranian officials later said they would take part in the talks.
The plan to escort the Iranian delegation depends on a calm period. It needs the ability to quickly avoid conflicts in the air, strict rules about when the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) can act, and secret agreements with countries in the Gulf. The fact that PAF planes are reported to be near the UAE and Saudi Arabia suggests these agreements do exist, at least informally.
What if a plane appears on radar that looks suspicious, or an aircraft accidentally flies too close to the protected route? The idea of preventing trouble only works if the PAF can react without the situation turning into a larger conflict. This is where control from AWACS (airborne warning and control system) planes, the range of tanker planes (for refueling), and already-established communication lines are most important.
Beyond the flight itself, the topics discussed at the summit will decide if this demonstration of strength is worth it. If Washington and Tehran come up with a way to make the ceasefire stable and create a way to discuss further issues, Pakistan will be able to say it has had a real success in diplomacy. If the talks break down because of Lebanon or disagreements about checking the ceasefire, the air route will just be a memorable detail.
Three things will tell us which way things are going. First, how clear any statement released after the meeting is. Second, whether both sides describe the same plan for reducing tensions, and whether that includes Lebanon. Third, whether there’s a schedule for more technical talks to confirm people are following the rules and monitoring the situation.
At the moment, Pakistan has done everything a host country can do in a place where control is questioned: it’s lowered the immediate dangers and shown it’s taking the process very seriously. The question people who criticize Pakistan keep asking remains. Was this show of force about safety or appearances? Actually, it’s about both. The escort makes the flight safer, and the display of power gives Pakistan back some influence.
If the talks go ahead and lead to even small improvements, this operation will seem sensible. If the talks fall apart or are delayed again, it might be seen as going too far. Either way, Pakistan has decided that appearing strong is better than looking like it’s doing nothing. And this week, the state of the skies is as important as what happens in the meeting room, so Pakistan may have had no other choice.
