It’s a sign of a possible change in how the West Asia crisis is being handled. In a way, Lavrov is putting India at the heart of a standoff that has everything to do with regional security and the world’s energy supply.
Why India is being pushed to the centre
After some talks with his BRICS counterparts in New Delhi, Lavrov made the case that India has the experience to bring the right people into a room. He called for this kind of engagement to head off any long-running trouble.
Pakistan’s current role and Russia’s warning
He makes a point of separating quick fixes from something more enduring. Pakistan, for instance, is on hand to open up some US-Iran channels for the nitty-gritty issues. But, in Lavrov’s view, India is in a better spot to see a process through and lower the temperature over time.
Here are Lavrov’s core propositions as stated at the briefing:
– Pakistan is facilitating urgent US-Iran dialogue
– India could serve as a long-term mediator
– India should use its BRICS presidency
– Begin with Iran-UAE talks to avoid hostilities
Energy stakes and BRICS diplomacy
Part of why he thinks India is up to the task is because it is a big energy consumer with a lot riding on things not going south. He wants New Delhi to use its BRICS standing to get regional powers talking before they end up in each other’s faces.
One place to start, he said, would be a chat between Iran and the UAE to make sure they don’t come to blows. That could be a model for de-escalation elsewhere.
Lavrov was clear about what he sees as unprovoked moves by the US and Israel that have stoked the current fire. Moscow, he says, is after the opposite result. He also has a word of warning about those who seem to be sowing discord between Iran and its Arab neighbours.
There is no small matter of timing here. With US sanctions waivers on Russian and Iranian oil set to run out, you can only imagine the jolt to the markets if there is a misstep. And with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the UAE, the energy-security equation is front and centre.
So Lavrov has been making his pitch to India to put its services on the table as BRICS chair. He even proposed an invite to Iran and the UAE to get a preventive conversation under way.
India’s mediation record and what comes next
You have to look at India’s record to see where he’s coming from. From the 1953 armistice to brokering Austrian neutrality, or its work in Vietnam and the Suez, New Delhi has a history of this. Lately, as G20 host, it has been pointing to the cost of the Russia-Ukraine war and touting itself as a Voice of the Global South.
In his New Delhi stop, Lavrov sat down with both Mr. Modi and S Jaishankar. India’s line has always been that diplomacy is the way to go.
Possible next steps
If Lavrov’s overture is taken up, we may see India try a focused dialogue with Iran and the UAE. If that works, it would put New Delhi in a stronger position to open up the wider Iran-US channel, with BRICS to back it up.
