When Donald Trump said back in the day that a ceasefire was the prelude to a quick agreement with Iran, he made it sound like it was coming. It hasn’t. He has been at it time and again, saying we are on the cusp of a breakthrough, but there is no resolution. What you have now is a chasm between what was promised and what has come of it.
A lot of promises, not much to show for it
CNN has done the numbers: 37 times or more, at least, that Trump has gone on record since the hostilities to say a deal with Tehran was nigh or that they were keen to make one. You’d think you were at the end of the line, then you wouldn’t be.
Why does it add up? Because when you set a timeline, you set an expectation. Whether you’re an ally, a foe or at the table, you read the room and act on the momentum. Let a big deadline go by and you see a change in the dynamic, especially when you’re talking about lifting sanctions, keeping the region secure and nuclear deals.
What Trump had to say about the schedule
Even before the truce, he was in an optimistic mood. March 23rd, he put it this way: ‘We’ve hit some major points of agreement, I would say – almost all of them.’ Then the following day: ‘I think we’re going to put an end to it,’ though he hedged with, ‘I can’t be 100 per cent on that.’
Fast forward to the 25th and he says Iran is wanting to ‘make a deal so badly.’ The 26th, in front of the Cabinet, he has them ‘begging for it.’ Come the 29th and you ask him if it will be done in a week? ‘I do see a deal in Iran, yeah.’
Then the April 7th ceasefire gave him his best platform. He had the two sides ‘very far along’ and only a fortnight to ‘have the Agreement in the books.’ An ‘Honor to have this Longterm problem close to being put to rest.’ The two weeks came and went. Nothing to see here.
He was on Fox Business on the 15th: ‘I view it as very close to over.’ The next day: ‘We’re going to make a good deal with Iran.’ By the 17th the talking was up a notch.
Trump would have you believe Iran has ‘agreed to everything’ and that he doesn’t see ‘too many significant differences.’ He even put out a post on the 20th: ‘it will all happen, relatively quickly!’ But the talks didn’t wrap up.
The kind of talk kept up through the rough patches. On the 30th, Iran is ‘dying to make a deal.’ May 1st: ‘When the war ends, which shouldn’t be too long …’ And on the 18th, he says he held off on any action because some in the region told him they were ‘getting very close to making a deal.’
He’ll own up to the ones that didn’t pan out – ‘we thought we were pretty much there and it didn’t work’ – and tell you, ‘this is a little bit different.’ CNN would have it that in the end, it wasn’t. He put it on the record on May 23rd that the administration was “getting a lot closer” and to expect an announcement in short order.
Then on the 28th, he told Lara Trump in an interview they were “close to a very good deal.” He was more blunt with Axios: “We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good one. I don’t want it to blow up over what’s going on at the moment.” You could hear him make the same point again the following day.
If you only have time for the highlights, here is what Trump has been touting:
– April 7: A two-week window to put together a full agreement
– April 17: “Next day or two,” with everything “agreed to”
– May 28: “Close to a very good deal”
– Lately: “Very close to having a deal”
There are headwinds to these talks that have nothing to do with what’s in the room. Mistrust has been ratcheted up by fresh sparring between Iran and Israel, putting a strain on the tenuous ceasefire. Every scuffle makes it a political risk to give ground, even if both sides have held off on direct action since Monday after Trump asked them to.
Why it won’t stick
And there are real divides left to bridge. Sanctions, security in the region, the fate of Iran’s nuclear work – these are the things that get in the way of a smooth diplomatic process. Without answers, all the talk doesn’t make for a signed document.
The cost in leverage and trust
Trump’s words have had their effect. On May 18 he said he was holding off on strikes for a few days because some in the Middle East “think that they are getting very close to making a deal.” It was a show of faith in progress that never came to pass.
He may have been calling for restraint, but Israeli forces still made moves against Iranian infrastructure in the wake of some retaliatory missile fire. Some would say it puts a question mark over how much Washington can really steer Israel when it counts. It’s also a case of the reality on the ground moving faster than the talking points.
Whether he says we’re “very far along” or “in the final throes of a very, very good deal,” Trump has a way of making it sound like it’s right around the corner. When you throw in “shortly” or “relatively quickly,” you set a kind of informal deadline. And when you miss it, it’s felt.
You put out those expectations often enough and the misses stand out. People are looking at his new claims with a certain skepticism given the track record. As CNN has pointed out, this isn’t a fluke; it’s part of how he does things.
Looking ahead
It’s been over two months since the ceasefire was put forward and the negotiations are still in limbo. Trump will tell you a deal is in the offing, but the history of the last couple of months tells a different story. The hard stuff – sanctions, security, the nukes – is still there.
In Israel and Iran, they’ve made it known that if things go south, the military option is back on the table. That looms over any attempt at diplomacy. For the time being, the only thing you can be sure of is the lack of surety: no deal has been put on the table, the truce is thin and the word hasn’t been delivered.
It’s simple enough. A done deal would calm a hot front and change the math in the region. But until then, every time he says it’s about to be wrapped up, it will be measured against what he’s said before – and a calendar that doesn’t wait for a signature.
