Donald Trump has put out a feeler for an opening with Tehran. He expects to see Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and is of the opinion that negotiations are moving along, war or not – the one that got under way on 28 February. He also puts it down to the table that Iran has ceded on the nuclear front, making for what he sees as a workable process.
What Trump said and why it matters
On a ‘Pod Force One’ interview that came out Wednesday, Trump was clear: there is a line of communication with Iran and Khamenei is still the one making the calls. “They’ve already agreed they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,” he put it, as if to show you what kind of results this backchannel is producing.
In Trump’s telling, Khamenei is a figure of some weight in the Iranian system. “He’s involved, absolutely. Yeah, I think they have a lot of respect for him.” That doesn’t mean they’ve been in the same room. “I’d like to meet him. We probably will, depending on how it all works out.”
A guarded channel with Tehran
Trump put some of the lag in their exchanges down to Khamenei being something of a recluse and the need for couriers. He’s been told the man isn’t in the best of health but is still the final word on any deal. “I haven’t had the privilege of meeting him… If you believe the stories, he’s missing a lot of different parts,” he observed.
At 56, Mojtaba Khamenei has been off the public eye since the hostilities started. Word on the street is he was hurt in the first round of US-Israeli strikes that also took out his father, the former leader Ali, and a few from the family. But according to Trump, Khamenei is still very much in the driver’s seat in Tehran.
Here is what you can take from the interview:
– “They’ve already agreed they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,”
– “He’s involved, absolutely… a lot of respect for him.”
– “I’d like to meet him… we probably will meet at some point.”
A notable shift from past rhetoric
You won’t hear the same thing from Trump as you did before. He used to call Khamenei a “lightweight” and “unacceptable,” and even brought up some hearsay about his sexuality to say it put him “off to a bad start in that particular country.”
These days he’s touting a more open book. It’s the same playbook he used with North Korea in his first term, when he and Kim Jong Un were swapping “love letters” and getting together. It’s his way of mixing in some hardball with some face-to-face diplomacy.
War’s fallout and Trump’s next moves
As for the war in Iran, Trump will have it that it’s been a win and the Islamic Republic’s forces are done for. Of course, the strikes since 28 February have done a number on the energy market and aren’t exactly popular at home with the November elections coming up.
He’s not ready to put a date or fine print on any agreement. “We’re working on a deal, and that happens fine. If it doesn’t happen, that’s OK too. We’ll do it the other way.” He didn’t elaborate, but we know he’s talked up resuming the strikes before.
What to watch next
It all comes down to two things: is the nuclear promise from Tehran for real, and can Khamenei be part of the conversation? Trump thinks so, but with the dialogue being so slow and run through middlemen, a meeting might well come down to the leader’s state and how the battlefield calms down.
“We seem to be getting along quite well,” is his line. Time will tell if that means a path to a ceasefire, a handshake between leaders, or if we’re in for more of the military option.
