In effect, Trump has lobbed a political grenade into the heart of West Asia. His Plan B for dealing with Hezbollah is to let Syria have at it if the body count keeps rising, and to leave Israel out of it. The President has made no secret of his view that the bickering between Israel and Hezbollah is a sideshow to the new US-Iran arrangement, and he’s calling for some restraint.
What Trump proposed and why it matters
Over in France for the G7, and with Qatar’s Emir by his side, Trump said he’s been telling Israel to let the Syrians deal with Hezbollah. ‘They’ll do a better job,’ he put it. And if Israel can’t get it done without a massacre, well, he will. ‘Syria will do the job.’
You can see it in a clip of his that’s been making the rounds: he’s suggesting Syria ought to ‘take care of Hezbollah’ for a more competent result. It’s a hard turn from how the US has done things in the past, and it puts an old thorn in Israel’s side right in the middle of a delicate matter.
He had kind words for Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, calling him ‘very capable’ and ‘no boy scout,’ and noting that Syria isn’t fond of Hezbollah. But even so, he won’t mince words about what’s happening in Lebanon. He says Israel has been at it with Hezbollah for too long and ‘too many people are being killed.’
Rift with Netanyahu goes public
Then he did something you don’t often see: a public dressing-down of an ally. He told Benjamin Netanyahu he needs to be more responsible in Lebanon and he was ‘not happy’ with how they were handling it. ‘You don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you are looking for somebody,’ he said.
Trump let on that he made it clear to Israel he didn’t like their recent move in Beirut, which he put at ‘two hours’ before the US was to put the final touches on the Iran deal. That one in the capital left three dead and six with injuries. He also made a point of US clout: ‘Without me there would be no Israel.’
He may say he and Netanyahu have a ‘great relationship,’ but he also felt Israel ‘should have been able to do the job faster.’ It all points to a growing divide over the cost in lives and how long this war in Lebanon is to last.
Iran deal in the balance
For his part, Trump is of the mind that the US-Iran framework can hold up, come what may on the northern front with Israel.
To him, the situation in the Lebanon theatre is a “minor war” and Hezbollah is no more than a “little pinprick” when you put it up against what really matters: making sure Iran never gets its hands on a nuclear weapon.
He’s confident the next leg of the agreement will be “easier” and “successful.” To that end, he has put forward some moves to cool down the region, like opening up the Strait of Hormuz and ending the American blockade on Iran. We can expect a formal MoU to be put to paper in Switzerland this Friday.
But make no mistake, Trump has put Iran on notice: try to build a bomb and “all hell will rain down.” He sees this as a fix for the way diplomacy has been done before and won’t have it sidetracked by what Israel is doing in Lebanon.
Key points at play:
– The US and Iran have a framework on the table
– The plan includes an open Strait of Hormuz
– The US is calling off its blockade
– A signing in Switzerland is in the cards for Friday
On the ground in Lebanon
The war there has been hard on the people. Israeli operations have left thousands dead. Some put the number of those driven from their homes and not let back in at over 600,000. For its part, Israel has made clear it could stay in some areas “as long as necessary.”
Trump has made the human toll his main point. You don’t raze an apartment building to go after a few suspects, he says, because “there are a lot of people in there, and they’re not all with Hezbollah.” It’s a different tone from how he has stood by Israel in other trouble spots.
Is Syria in a position to ‘take care of’ Hezbollah?
That’s one of the thorny issues with his plan. The old relationship between Syria and Hezbollah is a tangle, and whether Damascus can actually put a leash on the militias in Lebanon is an open question. But the signal from Washington is plain: get the civilian death count down or we’ll have to rework our security posture.
– In short: keep things in check in Lebanon so Iran stays the focus
– Israel is being told to wind down the fighting and the damage
What to expect
Everyone will be watching what happens in Switzerland on Friday to see if the deal is made. Trump is of the view it can hold up even if Israel does more, but he has also given Netanyahu a kind of ultimatum: be “more responsible” in Lebanon or we will have to change how we handle the Hezbollah issue.
For the moment, he’s waging a bet that a bit of role-playing will contain the spillover and let him pursue his Iran agenda. It will come down to whether Israel is willing to alter course and if Syria is up to the task he has in mind – and that will tell us if this is just a ploy or the way forward.
