On Saturday from Air Force One, Donald Trump put forward a no-nonsense case for American energy security. His line: we have more to offer in oil, gas and coal than any other country, and new stock from Venezuela is keeping a lid on costs. It’s a way of saying we can make some moves that will be felt in the Gulf and in world markets.
Energy dominance claim and why it matters
Trump made the point that if things get rough, we have the room to work with, thanks to what we have at home and the options on the table. He put it as a matter of having the upper hand, not being short on anything. ‘We have more oil and gas and coal and everything else than any other country on the planet,’ he said. That kind of position, in his view, is what underpins a stable market and lets us absorb a shock without having to put a crimp in our gasoline exports.
Venezuela link and promised barrels
Then there is the Venezuela angle. Trump is making much of the fact that we’re in step with Caracas, and that it’s putting Washington in an even better spot as the flow of energy picks up. ‘When you add Venezuela to it… we have probably 64 percent of that type of energy,’ he put it. And he was sure to note, ‘we’re going to be taking out millions of barrels of oil’ in a relationship he says is ‘working out very well’.
What Trump says big oil is doing
He told me the big names in the industry are ‘moving in there now as we speak’, which he sees as proof that they are upping their game on investment and extraction. At the same time, he’s of the opinion that our own majors have what it takes to ratchet up production here if need be.
Iran tensions, escorts, and prices
For all the talk of plenty, Trump made a connection between a calm market and the pressure we’re putting on Tehran. ‘They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. And they’re in no position to have a nuclear weapon.’ The Strait of Hormuz was a given in his comments. I put to him the question of naval escorts; he wouldn’t put a number on it but said there is ‘a lot’ of oil on the move. In his telling, that’s what’s standing in the way of a price run-up.
Strait of Hormuz flows under guard
'A lot of oil is coming into our country and a lot of oil is coming into the world,’ he said, and he gave credit to the fact that it’s being shepherded in. ‘That is why you have $97 a barrel instead of 300 dollars a barrel.’ It’s worth noting, too, that US forces have been downing Iranian missiles and drones in the area. You can see in an instant how those kinds of events in the Gulf can change the mood in the market.
Prices, predictions, and the next move
You won’t hear the worst of the doomsday scenarios from Trump. ‘Today I looked at 96 dollars a barrel. People thought that was going to be 300 dollars a barrel.’ He figures once we get some of these regional matters in order, it could be even easier on the wallet.
He has a hunch we may see some pullback at the pump. He pointed to a trip he made where he saw Iowa at ‘$1.85’ a gallon ‘three and a half months ago’ as a sign of where we could be if the heat is taken off.
So what to look for after today: – Any expansion of our presence in the Strait of Hormuz – The speed with which Venezuelan oil makes it to market – What the US oil companies decide to do with output
