It was a case of the best of times for the company’s books and the worst for the share price. Even with 480,126 vehicles on the road – a 25% jump from last year and well above what Wall Street was calling for – the stock gave back 8.3% to hit $390 at one point on July 2nd. The gap between the hard data and the mood in the room was plain to see.
You had to be there to watch it happen. In midday trading, the stock was down more than 7 per cent to $395 before settling in. “It could be some profit-taking after the run we’ve had,” is how Seth Goldstein of Morningstar put it. A bit of a head-scratcher when you look at the operational side of things.
Why they were selling on a record day
By all accounts, Tesla did what it was supposed to do. A FactSet survey put the consensus at 401,000; they came in well ahead of that for a second quarter in a row. But the way the stock has moved tells you the market is still trying to figure out if this is the real thing or just a blip after a rough patch for the brand.
Put it in context and the recent performance makes sense. The stock has been on a tear since the heavy losses we saw earlier in the year – up 15% in May and 13% for the quarter. Still, it’s 13% in the hole for 2026 and some 27% off the $498.83 mark it once made.
If you break down the delivery figures, it’s the volume sellers like the Model 3 and Y that are carrying the load. They make up 467,762 of the total, or 97%. Production for the three months was 451,758, so they were able to ship out some 28,000 more than they built and put a dent in inventory.
What the sales numbers don’t show
There’s a lot of variance under the surface. Some of the trouble from a year ago was no doubt due to the boycotts and protests you hear about in connection with Elon Musk, on top of the U.S. federal tax credit being taken off the table.
Cox Automotive puts U.S. sales down 20 per cent in Q2, which is a sign of the domestic lull. Over in Europe, it’s a different story. With some good incentives and more companies going electric with their fleets, the region is on an upswing.
Europe is on the move
The trade groups in Europe have been reporting some solid numbers for May, with Germany up 300 per cent. And with the cheaper versions of the Model 3 and Y on offer, plus lower costs to lease or finance, you can see why they’re attracting buyers who are watching their pennies.
Then there are the driver-assistance features, which the authorities are finally coming around to.
The U.S. has had Full Self-Driving (Supervised) for a while, but the feature was only given the nod in the Netherlands back in April, with Estonia, Greece and Lithuania not far behind. That kind of regulatory headway is what will open up more of the market for Tesla in the months to come.
U.S. demand is still an issue
It’s a tougher story on this side of the Atlantic. You have the loss of the big federal tax incentive and old‑school buyers who got skittish last year. To make up for it, Tesla has been putting its weight on price moves and what’s happening overseas. It’s why even with good global numbers, some investors are left unimpressed.
And there’s 2025 to factor in. It was a rough year: car sales were down for the second time in a row and BYD in China put an end to Tesla’s run as the top EV maker. You can’t have a conversation about the stock without that in the room.
A change in tactics
Tesla is streamlining what it makes and making room for what’s next. The Model S and X are off the assembly line as of May; they’ve been moving the rest of the stock through the quarter. In January the company made it known those Fremont lines would be put to work on Optimus robots.
Then there’s the energy side of things. They put 13.5 GWh of storage in the ground, a 40.6% increase from a year ago and a bit better than the 13.3 GWh we were expecting. As the auto sector finds its footing, that’s a nice non-car revenue to have.
Numbers don’t lie: 480,126 units in the second quarter is a 25% step up from 384,000 this time last year, and you won’t find anything like it in the first quarter of 2026 (358,023). Some of the luster may be coming back to the brand, in Europe at any rate.
Looking ahead
When the Q2 books are put out on July 22nd, Wall Street will want some straight talk on pricing, where the sales are coming from, and how they’re making money on software. We’ll also be seeing if the new go‑aheads for driver assist in Europe actually put metal on the road.
Here’s what to keep an eye on:
– FSD in Europe
– How U.S. demand holds up after a 20 per cent drop in Q2
– Any word on getting Optimus into production
– Margins and the pace of the energy business
Tesla has been working to make the story about robotaxis and self‑driving to take the heat off the competition. If that doesn’t make up for some wobbles in the car business, sentiment could sour.
The fact that the stock has pulled back despite good operational results is a sign of a reset, not a turn around. Deliveries are outstripping output and inventory is down, so there is some steam in the engine. But until the gap between what the regions are doing and what investors want is closed, it’s going to be a see‑saw.
