After the US-Israeli war started in Iran, profits for global energy markets increased very sharply. New calculations show those top oil and gas companies made over $30 million an hour in extra profit during March, and the total for the month, because oil averaged around $100 a barrel, was roughly $23 billion.
Industry windfalls and immediate numbers
Rystad Energy’s analysis (checked by Global Witness) says the 100 biggest energy companies got about $23 billion in additional profits just in March. This is because of the quick jump in prices after fighting started on February 28, and the world’s oil supply becoming tighter.
If oil stays near $100 a barrel, the same analysis predicts the industry could make an additional $234 billion from the conflict by the end of the year. These huge numbers are making people think again about who gets the benefits when world events cause problems.
Who benefited most from the price spike
Saudi Aramco is likely to be the biggest single winner. They’re expected to make $25.5 billion from the war in and of itself during 2026 if oil is around $100 a barrel. They already make a huge amount of money each day and will now get a significant increase in income.
Russia’s Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil are also in line to do well, with around $23.9 billion in extra profits expected this year. Big US companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron will also get a large windfall – $11 billion and $9.2 billion respectively.
Market reactions and company valuations
The price shock was quickly reflected in how much the companies are worth, and this increased the profits even more. After the fighting began, ExxonMobil’s total market value went up by more than $100 billion, showing investors think the higher profits will continue.
Energy companies in Europe aren’t untouched by this either. Shell expects to have about $6.8 billion extra earnings with current prices, which shows how profits from energy cross borders when people are worried about the supply of oil.
Policy responses: windfall taxes and relief measures
Because of how big these profits are, more and more people are asking for governments to do something. In Europe, the ministers of finance have asked for countries to work together using international financial organizations. Governments are thinking about windfall taxes and giving direct help to households to protect them from increasing energy prices and general inflation.
Some European governments have suggested using these extra company profits to pay for assistance programs. Those making policy have to balance things; a windfall tax can bring money in quickly, but could make it harder to attract investment and to plan for a long-term change to cleaner energy unless it is done carefully.
Outlook and broader economic implications
If the fighting goes on and prices stay high, the energy sector could continue to get large, unexpected profits, and this will likely change the public conversation about what companies should be responsible for and how the government should collect and spend money. Policymakers will need definite and open rules about how the money is used, who gets it, and how long the extra tax will be in effect.
In the long run, more money from oil might make countries and companies more interested in short-term gains than reducing carbon emissions, unless the rules and what investors are encouraged to do support climate goals. Finding a balance between helping people with their bills now and making sure there’s continued investment in a cleaner energy system will be a major issue in the coming months.
