Industry figures suggest India has only a 40- to 45-day supply if Hormuz closes. This short time frame is based on about 100 million barrels of crude oil that the country has commercially and strategically stored in tanks, caverns below ground, and on tankers on their way to ports in India. It gives some time, but doesn’t guarantee no problems.
What a Hormuz shutdown means for India
India imports around 88 percent of the crude oil it uses. Over half of this comes from the Middle East and usually goes through the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow, 33-kilometer channel connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
Almost 2.5 million barrels of crude oil that India gets each day travel through Hormuz. The strait is also the route for most of the liquefied natural gas India gets from Qatar, and a good amount of LPG. Worldwide, about a third of oil carried by sea, and around a fifth of LNG, pass through this key waterway.
Recent reports of military attacks and responses in the area have reduced the number of tankers moving around. A full shutdown would quickly stop immediate shipments, make voyages longer, and make oil companies compete to buy other supplies at higher prices.
How much cover do India’s oil inventories provide?
Kpler thinks India’s commercial and strategic crude oil supplies are about 100 million barrels, including what is stored at Mangalore, Padur, and Visakhapatnam, as well as oil that is already on ships headed for India.
Compared to the average 2.5 million barrels a day that usually come via Hormuz, these supplies mean about 40 to 45 days of oil to replace what would normally arrive if supplies from the Middle East were briefly stopped. Actually, supplies already on the way would continue to arrive, making the first few weeks easier.
Stocks of finished products – diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel – held by oil companies and those who sell to the public, give an extra bit of help. These can cover short gaps, particularly if exports are cut back. But these are meant for problems that last weeks, not months.
It’s important to see the difference between two measurements: Strategic crude reserves alone cover about 17 to 18 days of the country’s total oil needs. The larger 40- to 45-day estimate is about making up for the part of imports that usually go through Hormuz.
Price shock before physical shortage
The first effect will be on price, not at the gas station. Brent crude has risen to around $80 a barrel – up about 10 percent since the latest trouble. Even without a total blockade, war-risk insurance, extra shipping costs, and world politics add dollars to each barrel.
For India, each extra dollar adds to the cost of imports. The country spent about $137 billion on crude oil in the year to March 31, 2025. In the first ten months of the current year, it paid about $100.4 billion for 206.3 million tonnes.
If ships must take longer routes, costs when the oil gets here go up even more. Oil companies then face smaller profits, and the government is put under pressure to protect customers while also controlling inflation, the value of the currency, and government finances.
Plan B: rerouting barrels and reshaping trade flows
India can change course quickly, but not without expense. Other supplies are available from West Africa, Latin America, and the United States. Voyages take longer and shipping is more expensive, but the oil itself is there.
Russia remains a very important supplier that can change things. Kpler figures show Russian supplies to India were just over 1 million barrels a day in February – still the largest single source, with Saudi Arabia sharply increasing shipments to reduce the difference. If things get much worse in the Strait of Hormuz, more Russian oil already in Asian waters could be taken up.
What Washington says matters, but what makes the most business sense will be what really decides things. Indian companies that refine oil have always said that the price, the quality, and how easy it is to get the oil are what affect where they get it from. A market with less oil available might also make it easier to ignore problems with other countries, as having enough energy becomes the main thing.
Changes won’t happen the same way everywhere. Some refineries can only handle certain kinds of oil and levels of sulfur. To take the place of Basrah Medium or Arab Light with oil from far away, they might have to change the mixes they use, make changes to how they work, and do more trading.
What India can do at home: limiting exports and managing demand
If things really get bad, the government could step in to help. It could tell refineries to supply India first, before they send oil products overseas. India sends a lot of refined products – diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel – to other countries. Bringing those barrels back would lower how much money India gets from exports, but it would make more available at home and keep prices at the pump from going up too much. People in charge have used this before when the market was tight.
LPG – cooking gas – is the biggest worry. India gets almost two-thirds of its LPG from the Gulf, and 85 to 90 percent of that comes from Gulf countries. Even with oil that is already on the way, the amount in storage might only be enough for less than two weeks if the oil stops coming. Refineries have already begun to make as much LPG as they can, and plans for giving out only a certain amount to people are being considered.
Other supplies aren’t endless. Gasoline and diesel in storage usually cover around 20 to 21 days of what people need. There isn’t as much LNG – liquid natural gas – in storage, about 10 to 12 days’ worth. Without new shipments through Hormuz, or ways to get around it, these supplies would slowly go down.
What could happen, how long it might take, and what to look for
The worst thing that could happen is a long and serious problem, along with fighting that gets worse. In that case, the price of crude oil would go up a lot, it would be harder to get ships, insurance for the risk of war would become much more expensive, and refineries might have to slow down or stop if they can’t get enough oil to replace what they’re losing.
Experts warn that this is not likely, but would have a big effect. In the short term, the risk is more about prices going up and having to pay more to import, than about running out of oil completely. India’s ways to get oil from different places and what it already has in storage should be enough to deal with a short stop in shipments.
Important things to watch are how many tankers are in and around Hormuz, the cost of insurance and what insurance companies are offering, the price of shipping oil on Very Large Crude Carriers, and how much is being taken out of Indian ports and storage places. Also, keep an eye out for things the government does, like limiting exports, plans to release supplies from storage, or changes to how prices are set at the pump.
Talking to other countries about energy will be important. Talks with suppliers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Russia, the United States, and West Africa could speed up getting oil from other places. Working with shipping companies and insurers could keep shipping lanes open, or make lines with escorts if needed.
What the 45-day warning means
India’s 100 million barrel supply is real, but it’s a countdown. Based on how much India uses, it’s about 40 to 45 days of cover if oil can’t get through Hormuz, and supplies of oil products and sending back oil that was going to be exported will stretch that out a little. Every extra day bought by good logistics, quickly getting more oil, and sensible government policy lowers the chance of not having enough.
The bigger problem is the cost. A longer, more expensive supply chain causes inflation, trade problems, and slower growth. Dealing with that means quickly getting different oil, refineries being able to change what they do, and clearly saying that supplies at home will be protected.
Being prepared is the difference between prices going up a lot and running out of oil. If Hormuz closes, the 45-day warning isn’t the end; it’s the start of urgently getting oil from somewhere else, carefully giving out only a certain amount when needed, and the government taking action to keep India’s economy going.
